Small Craft Advisory 151, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 171314
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST THU FEB 17 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-180300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 970 MB LOW 425 NM SE OF ADAK THU AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 275 NM NW
OF DUTCH HARBOR FRI NIGHT AND WEAKEN TO 984 MB. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-180300-
AREA 2B. CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST THU FEB 17 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT INCREASING TO E 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-180300-
AREA 2B1. RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST THU FEB 17 2005

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-180300-
AREA 2C. PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST THU FEB 17 2005

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-180300-
AREA 2C4. PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST THU FEB 17 2005

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-180300-
AREA 3A. BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST THU FEB 17 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO E 40 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 45 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-180300-
AREA 3B. SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST THU FEB 17 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS INCREASING TO 
45 KT WITH STRONGER GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-180300-
AREA 3C. SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST THU FEB 17 2005

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT INCREASING TO E 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO NE 50 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS DIMINISHING TO E 25 KT. 
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-180300-
AREA 4. COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST THU FEB 17 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 15 KTS. 
SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT INCREASING TO NE 25 KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 10 FT IN ICE FREE
WATERS.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-180300-
AREA 4A. KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST THU FEB 17 2005

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST WED FEB 16 2005

.DISCUSSION...

META...GFS...AND UKMET ALL HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. META
TAKES THE MIDDLE GROUND AND IS PREFERRED...IN THE SHORT TERM AT
LEAST. A SERIES OF STRONG LOWS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC...INTENSIFY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS THEN
DISSIPATE IN THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA.

HIGH PRESSURE AT BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVENT ANY OF THESE
LOWS FROM MOVING INLAND. NEARLY CONTINUOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM
ADVECTION WILL BE MAINTAINED ALONG WESTERN ALASKAS BERING COAST.

THREE MAJOR LOWS WILL KEEP GALE OR STORM WARNINGS ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. A 972 MB LOW NEAR 61N 170W WILL
WEAKEN TO 987 MB NEAR 55N 176W THU AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING NEAR
53N 178W FRI AFTERNOON.  A 996 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 37N 172W
WED AFTERNOON THEN INTENSIFY TO 970 MB NEAR 52N 165W THU NIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING NEAR 55N 174W FRI EVENING. A 989 MB LOW NEAR 40N 163W
THU AFTERNOON WILL INTENSIFY TO 969 MB NEAR 55N 173W SAT MORNING.

SEASONALLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AOR
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. ONLY THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND NORTHERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
WILL SEE DAILY HIGHS THAT FAIL TO BREAK THE FREEZING LEVEL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND 181
MARINE...STORM 5B 6A 6B
         GALE OFB 2B 5A 5B 12A 12B 14 15
         SMCR 3A 3B 3C 4 8 12A1 13A 13B
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB FEB 05