Small Craft Advisory 1096, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1053 AM AST WED DEC 28 2005

.DISCUSSION...SAME OLE PATTERN IN THE GULF AGAIN TODAY. LOW
SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND NEAR 151W IS KEEPING THE ISLAND AND AREAS
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST MILD AND OCCASIONALLY WET AND BREEZY,
ESPECIALLY THE CHANNELED AREAS. SNOW LEVELS ARE NEAR OR SHORT WAYS
ABOVE 1500 FT WITH MORNING TEMPS AS HIGH AS 45 AT PORTAGE GLACIER.
INLAND AREAS ARE DRIER AND COOLER WITH JUST VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS
AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION.

A BREAK BETWEEN THE BENTBACK OCCLUSION AND A FRONTAL WAVE MOVING
NORTHWEST IN THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL SPREAD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
DURING THE DAY TODAY WHILE LIGHT RAIN AND A PICK UP IN WIND SPREADS
WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

ANOTHER BREAK IN THE WEATHER IS FOUND OUT WEST ACROSS THE FOX ISLANDS
AND ALASKA PENINSULA BETWEEN THE GULF LOW AND THE FRONT LYING EAST
SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. WITH THE MAIN JET STAYING TO
THE SOUTH THIS CALM AREA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OR SO AS SEVERAL LOWS MOVE EASTWARD ALONG 50N.

PRIBILOFS NOW COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW AND WILL SEE A SLIGHT DOWNWARD
TREND IN TEMPERATURES NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND BEYOND. AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH JUST FLURRIES OR PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED.

MODELS HANDLE THE OVER ALL PATTERN WELL BUT THERE ARE DESCREPANCIES
WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES ALONG BOTH THE FRONT IN THE WEST
AND THE ONE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

IN THE LONGER TERM NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WITH CONTINUED MILD
SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE GULF WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
AND THE COASTAL AREAS FROM KODIAK ISLAND EASTWARD WET FOR THE NEXT 5
DAYS. MOVE OF A CHANGE OCCURS OUT WEST AS ARCTIC AIR FROM THE RUSSIAN
FAR EAST SPREADS SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS BY THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A CHANGE TOWARD THAT WOULD SHIFT THE
COLD AIR EASTWARD AND BRING SNOW AND LOWER TEMPERATURES BACK TO
SOUTHERN ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120..130..132 AND 138 FOR WEDNESDAY.

PERCY DEC 05