Small Craft Advisory 1081, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1000 AM AST SAT DEC 24 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS - THE BIG STORY TODAY IS A STORM FORCE LOW THAT HAS
DEVELOPED TO 947 MB NEAR KISKA AT 12Z SAT. A PLANETARY SCALE UPPER
LOW IS SUPPORTING THIS SYSTEM WITH SOMEWHAT COLD TEMPS ALOFT. THE
PASN RAOB HAS -28C AT 500 MB 12Z AND PROBABLY COLDER NEAR THE CENTER.
THE VERY PERSISTENT STRONG JET FROM INDIA TO 30N 140W HAS HAD A 200
KT CORE FOR DAYS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SECOND LOW NEAR 47N 172W
GUESSING AROUND 964 MB AT 18Z AND A GULF LOW 982 MB NEAR 57N 143W
ALSO 18Z. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. EXTENDS ALMOST
TO BARROW WHICH SETS UP SE FLOW ALOFT OVER MOST OF THE MAINLAND PART
OF THIS GIGANTIC FORECAST AREA. TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS CAUSING
SOME FOG PROBLEMS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL THIS MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SE.

AER FORECASTS - ALL MODELS INSIST THAT THE GULF LOW WILL DISSIPATE
AROUND AUGUSTINE ISLAND TONIGHT AS THE ALEUTIAN STROM CENTER EXTENDS
EASTWARD BY SECONDARY LOWS DEVELOPING. THE MODELS EVEN AGREE THAT A
TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL END UP NEAR PASD BY 12Z SUN FOR SOME MARINE
WINDS IN THE GULF. DUE TO SE FLOW ALOFT AROUND THIS SYSTEM WE WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH LESS CERTAINTY INLAND.

ALU FORECASTS - LOOK FOR OFFSHORE FLOW ALONG THE SW COAST THROUGH TUE
WITH A LONG FETCH OF EASTERLIES ACROSS THE BERING SEA ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE DEEP LOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS TUE WHICH SETS UP A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE PRIBILOFS
AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. ALL 12Z MODELS AGREE ON THIS RIDGE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY 101 TIL 1 PM.
MARINE...GALES 132 150 176 179. HVY FRZ SPRAY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

HAPPY HOLIDAYS.
JC DEC 05