Small Craft Advisory 1073, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
130 PM AST WED DEC 21 2005

.DISCUSSION...

LOW IN THE GULF DRIFTING NORTHWEST TOWARD THE KENAI PENINSULA COAST
IS GIVING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA. FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET MOSTLY CONFINED TO WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND
TURNAGAIN ARM WITH A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT THE
COAST WHERE RAIN IS FALLING AT SEWARD AND CORDOVA. THIS
PRECIPITATION MIX WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES
TO NEAR WHITTIER THEN THE AIRMASS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH ALOFT TO
ELIMINATE THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

LEANING TOWARD UKMET/GFS OVER THE ETA WITH THE 979 MB LOW NOW
SOUTHWEST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD
ALONG OR NEAR 140W TO NEAR YAKUTAT WITH JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE WIND
AND RAIN OCCURRING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AFTER A BREAK WED NIGHT AND THU STORMINESS WILL RETURN TO THE
ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN BERING THU NIGHT AND AND FRI. GFS TAKES A 944
MB LOW CENTER SOUTHEAST OF SHEMYA NEAR 50N FRI AFTERNOON. STORM
FORCE WINDS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BLOW INTO THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS LATE THU NIGHT AND THEN LIFT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN BERING FRI. SINCE THE LOW CENTER WILL TRACK EASTWARD
ALONG 50N THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
STORM..OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

IN THE LONGER TERM MODELS SUGGEST NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN WITH A SEMI PERMANENT RIDGE OF VARYING AMPLITUDE ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND LONGWAVE TROUGHING ALONG OR WEST OF
BRISTOL BAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA..EXCEPT FOR THE PRIBILOFS
AND ALEUTIANS..FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE YEAR.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM AREA 120 TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

PERCY DEC 05