Small Craft Advisory 1061, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM AST SUN DEC 18 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS SEEMS
TO HAVE THE BEST SOLUTION AT THE SURFACE. ONE CAVEAT..NONE OF THE
MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON A POLAR LOW DEVELOPING OFF OF SHEMYA.

SOUTHCENTRAL. A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUE WITH A WEAKER RIDGE BUILDING BACK OVER THE GULF. THIS
WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE REGION. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING BRINGING SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS DURING FROPA.
HOWEVER IT IS MOVING QUICKLY AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE PICTURE BY LATE
MORNING. OTHERWISE WARMER THAN NORMAL AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE MORNING EXCEPT FOR SOME ONSHORE FLOW
POSSIBLE ON KODIAK ISLAND AND THE KENAI PENINSULA. WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY MON MORNING. BY TUE NIGHT A LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE GULF BRINGING RAIN BACK TO SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL.

IN THE WEST. A BROAD LOW SOUTH OF ATKA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GALES
TO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS AS IT MOVES WEST. IT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY MON NIGHT. ALL DEVELOPING SYSTEMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THROUGH TUE FOLLOWING THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
SUPPORT. WINDS FROM THE CURRENT LOW WILL DIE DOWN BY LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS OVER MAINLAND SOUTHWEST AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING FROPA WHICH IS CURRENTLY JUST NORTH AND WEST OF BRISTOL BAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SEE MARINE PACKAGES.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RW DEC 05