Small Craft Advisory 1008, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST THU DEC 1 2005

.DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS REASONABLE. SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW WILL LEAN WITH GFS MODEL IN SHORT
TERM. LONG RANGE GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE OF
MEMBERS. EXPECT WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE IN LATTER PERIODS WITH ONLY
MINOR NUDGES.

.AER...LOW COMPLEX OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF AK WILL MAKE SOME
HEADWAY WEST TOWARD KENAI PEN. CURRENT IMAGERY SHOW SHOWERS MOVING
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COASTAL WATERS AND EASTERN KENAI PEN. EXPECT 850
MB FLOW SHIFTS SE TONIGHT AND TROUGH ELONGATES NE TO OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL AK. THIS WOULD IMPLY ONSET OF WEAK OVERUNNING. ETA MODEL
APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE ON AMOUNTS...BETTER CHOICE WOULD BE BLEND OF
MESO ETA/GFS. OVERALL WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING
SNOW IN SOUTHCENTRAL WITH RELATIVELY LOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT THROUGH
SAT.. GENERAL SNOW SHOWERS OVER GULF. COPPER RIVER WILL CONTINUE
COLD. GUST CAPE WINDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND.

.ALU... DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES OVER EASTERN RUSSIA AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. EXPECT BRISK
EAST TO NE FLOW TO BE GENERAL RULE OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH SAT.
SW MAINLAND WILL CONTINUE WITH THREAT OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE REGION THROUGH SAT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SEE CURRENT PACKAGE.

RMC DEC 05