Small Craft Advisory 1000, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
115 PM AST TUE NOV 29 2005

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE BERING TODAY WITH TROUGHS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN GULF COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING
THE SEWARD PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE...INTENSE HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES
OVER THE STATE AND THE ALEUTIANS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE SEWARD PENINSULA
SHORTWAVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE TOWARD ANCHORAGE...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE KENAI PENINSULA AND ANCHORAGE BOWL AREA
WED MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE ALASKA RANGE
INTO THE MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS MAY POSSIBLY REACH THE ANCHORAGE AREA
EARLY MON MORNING...BUT AT THE LEAST CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
AND HELP TO MODERATE OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. EXCEPT FOR
THIS INTERLUDE...HIGH DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS REESTABLISH THEMSELVES
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE RANGE INTO THE WEEKEND.

A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL KEEP STRONG WINDS BLOWING THROUGH THOMPSON PASS
AND THE COPPER RIVER DELTA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...POSSIBLY
ENHANCED AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES.

IN THE WEST...REMNANTS OF A WEATHER FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS TO THE KUSKOKWIM TODAY...BEFORE THE SEWARD PENINSULA
SHORTWAVE BRINGS MORE ON WED...ALONG WITH BRIEFLY MODERATING TEMPS.
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN
PLUMMETING.

IN THE WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE TRAVELING ALONG THE NORTHERN
FLANK OF THE HIGH MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE BERING THROUGH WED.
OTHERWISE THE HIGH OVER THE BERING WILL CONNECT WITH AN ARCTIC
HIGH...CREATING AN ENORMOUS DRY RIDGE FROM EASTERN RUSSIA INTO THE
NORTH PACIFIC WITH A VERY WEAK SADDLE OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS.
FARTHER WEST...A WEATHER FRONT FROM A KAMCHATKA LOW WILL BRING RAIN
AND GALES TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BEGINNING WED NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL
STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD UNALASKA BY THE WEEKEND AGAINST
THE RESISTANCE OF THE RIDGE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 130 150 152 172 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS NOV 05