Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT WED JUN 29 2005

.DISCUSSION...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN
ALASKA. THE MAIN AXIS OF THIS CONVECTION WILL ARC FROM THE NORTHERN
SUSITNA VALLEY INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND DOWN TO BRISTOL BAY.
A SECONDARY AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL STRETCH FROM THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN OVER THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS AND OVER TO THE KENAI
MOUNTAINS.

CONVECTION TOMORROW WILL BE IN THESE SAME AREAS BUT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE STABLE OVER THE WHOLE AREA SO LOOK FOR LESS OF
IT.

A LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
THEN DISSIPATE SOUTH OF SITKA THURSDAY.

A LOW IN SOUTHWEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT BUT
THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BRING MOISTURE AND PROBABLY SOME
PRECIPITATION INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THURSDAY.

ONLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GFS ANS ETA IS THE SPEED AT WHICH
THE UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. FAVOR SLOWER ETA SOLUTION AS THE UPPER LOW IS NOT
IN A FAVORABLE POSITION IN RELATION TO THE JET STREAM TO MOVE AS
QUICKLY AS THE GFS SUGGESTS.

SMOKE FROM FIRES IN THE INTERIOR IS COVERING MOST OF SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND ALASKA AND EXTENDS OVER SOUTHERN KODIAK ISLAND AS WELL.
SMOKE FROM FIRES ON THE KENAI PENINSULA IS OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA
NORTH TO THE MAT-SU VALLEY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

EZ JUN 05