Gale Warning 88, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 161359 CCA
CWFAER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST SUN JAN 16 2005

CORRECTED AREA 4

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-170300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WILL MOVE OVER NW CANADA
MON NIGHT. A 968 MB LOW WELL S OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NE AND WEAKEN THROUGH MON NIGHT. A SERIES OF SECONDARY LOWS WILL
DEVELOP S OF THE GULF MON WITH A 985 MB LOW DEVELOPING JUST OFF SITKA
MON NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ120-170300-
AREA 2B. CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST SUN JAN 16 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. E OF CAPE CLEARE...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING
TO NE 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
$$

PKZ121-170300-
AREA 2B1. RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST SUN JAN 16 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-170300-
AREA 2C. PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST SUN JAN 16 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 45
KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.  SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-170300-
AREA 2C4. PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST SUN JAN 16 2005

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-170300-
AREA 3A. BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST SUN JAN 16 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN ENDING. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
$$

PKZ132-170300-
AREA 3B. SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST SUN JAN 16 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-170300-
AREA 3C. SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST SUN JAN 16 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
$$

PKZ140-170300-
AREA 4. COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST SUN JAN 16 2005

SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

NORTH KALGIN ISLAND 

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY MON. 
$$

PKZ141-170300-
AREA 4A. KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST SUN JAN 16 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST SAT JAN 15 2005

...HEMISPHERIC VIEW...
LOPSIDED 4 WAVE PATTERN WITH NEGATIVES ANOMALIES OVER THE WEST AND
POSITIVES OVER THE EAST CONTINUES. OLD TRUSTY ANCHOR LOW CONTINUES TO
REMAIN NEAR THE HUDSON BAY AREA WHILE ALASKA IS UNDER A FLATTENING
RIDGE THAT IS MOSTLY ZONAL.

...AT THE SURFACE...
TWO MAIN FEATURES AT THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO BE THE HIGH JUST EAST OF
THE AOR AND AN IMPRESSIVE 950 MB LOW WELL SOUTH OF ADAK NEAR 40 N.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES MAKES AN NOTEABLE MARK IN THE
MARINES WHERE THE VAST MAJORITY OF PLACES ARE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

GENERALLY PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LIGHT ALTHOUGH REPORTS FROM NORTH OF
TALKEETNA INDICATED SNOWFALL AT AN INCH AN HOUR. CURRENT RADAR
RETURNS SHOWS A FEW SMALL BANDS MOVING UP COOK INLET. MAIN PUSH OF
MOISTURE IS OVER BRISTOL BAY AND STRETCHES UP TO BETHEL.

LOOKING AT THE NEW SOUNDINGS, BETHEL STICKS OUT WITH A DEFINITE SHOT
OF FREEZING RAIN. CURRENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 8 DEGREES WHILE
975 LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE +2 C.

...FOR THE FORECAST...
AT FIRST GLANCE THERE APPEARS TO BE VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE MODELS BUT THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS. SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH
INTO THE AOR IS BEING PICKED UP BETTER BY MESOETA. HOWEVER, WV
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE MESOETA IS DOING BETTER WITH THE OVERALL
DIMENSIONS AND KEEPS IT FURTHER TO THE EAST WHICH THE LATEST LOOP
IMAGES GOES ALONG WITH.

CURRENT WV LOOP ALONG WITH WSR88D RETURNS SUGGESTS AMPLE MOISTURE FOR
THE SOUTHWEST SO MESOETA PRECIPITATION NUMBERS WILL BE USED AND WITH
MESOETA HANDELING THE SHORTWAVE BETTER, NUMBERS SEEM GOOD.

IN THE EAST, BOTH THE MESOETA AND GFS ARE DOWNPLAYING MOISTURE OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. DECENT RADAR RETURNS ALONG WITH
REINFORCING PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH GOES AGAINST THE MODELS.
WILL GO WITH MORE LIBERAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...FURTHER OUT...

500MB FLOW EVEN HAS A DIVERGENT SOLUTION WITH A MORE ANGLED
ORIENTATION OVER THE GULF BY SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE GULF ON THE
ETA/ECMWF/UKMET WHILE THE GFS IS DRAGGING ITS FEET MORE. CONSIDERING
THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN DOWNPLAYING THE SPEED OF PROGRESSING
PIECES, THE GFS IS LIKELY OFF THE MARK.

EVEN FURTHER OUT, GLOBAL REDISTRIBUTION BEGINS IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS SOME OF THE COLD BREAKS OFF AND HEADS BACK TO SIBERIA
AND ELONGATES KEEPING US OUT OF THE BITTER COLD.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 3A 3C 4 AND ALL WESTERN ZONES
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 4 8 14
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

BELL JAN 05