Gale Warning 858, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 30 2005

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY IS THE OVERRUNNING EVENT CURRENTLY IN
PROGRESS. TIMING AND AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ARE THE AREAS OF CONCERN.

THE 988 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF IS PROVIDING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FLOW TO CREATE THE OVERRUNNING. THERE IS
VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE PRECIP ALTHOUGH THE 150 TO
200 ISENTROPIC LIFT VALUES OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA ARE STRONG ENOUGH
TO LEND ENERGY THROUGH TONIGHT. GFS AND NAM ARE NOT HANDLING THE
TIMING WELL ON THIS SYSTEM SO UKMET IS MODEL OF CHOICE FOR NOW. WITH
SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY INLET
ENHANCEMENT EVEN WITH UPPER LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SO
ANTICIPATE 2 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WESTERN KENAI WILL
PROBABLY SEE A COUPLE MORE INCHES BECAUSE OF THE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT.
SNOWFALL SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND POINTS NORTH
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK AND OVER THE KENAI BY DAYBREAK
TOMORROW.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TODAY AS A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE FRONT WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BERING OVER THE
NEXT 60 HOURS. FOR TODAY EXPECT STRATUS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF
THE NORTH FROM THE PRIBILOFS EAST.

THE NORTHERLY COLD AIR ENHANCEMENT AND THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
IN THE BERING AND THE LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF ARE PRODUCING HIGH WINDS
THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS OF THE AKPENN. GUSTS TO 75 MPH ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS MORNING FOR AREAS NEAR KING COVE BEFORE THE RIDGE PUSHES
EAST AND WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH. OTHERWISE EXPECT STRATUS AND SNOW
SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AK TODAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 181
MARINE...GALES 155 180 170 171 172 185 179
         STORMS 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RNW OCT 05