Gale Warning 792, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 021125
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 2 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-030200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 991 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF ADAK MAINTAINS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES TO
375 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK MON NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA BECOMES A 977 MB LOW MON MORNING 200 NM NORTHWEST OF
SHEMYA. THIS LOW WEAKENS INTO A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN BERING AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MON NIGHT.
$$

PKZ150-030200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 2 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-030200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 2 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-030200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 2 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-030200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 2 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-030200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 2 2005

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-030200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 2 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-030200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 2 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-030200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 2 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-030200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 2 2005

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-030200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 2 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-030200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 2 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-030200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 2 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT SAT OCT 1 2005

.DISCUSSION...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING SHOWERS TO MOST OF THE STATE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FILL.  IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE NORTHERLY FLOW
HAS PUSHED A WEAK ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE ANCHORAGE FORECAST REGION.  STATIONS
WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE ARE EXPERIENCING THEIR FIRST SNOW IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION.  THIS COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY UP THE COOK INLET...HOWEVER WITH MARINE MODIFICATION
AND CLEARING SKIES SNOW IS UNLIKELY EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE. THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS SLIDING WESTWARD SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE COLDER AIR. THIS HAS
BROUGHT THE HEAVIER SHOWERS SEEN YESTERDAY IN THE GULF TO THE KENAI PENINSULA
ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MAT SU VALLEY.  AS THE LOW LOSES ITS COLD AIR ADVECTION IT
WILL WEAKEN AND ALLOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO MOVE IN BEHIND IT.  SKIES
SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OVER THE STATE AS THE RIDGE MOVES IN...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE WEST COAST.  FOR TODAY EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS
DIMINISHING IN THE EAST.  BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE WILL MOVE ONTO THE MAINLAND AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR...BUT THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
ALEUTIANS BRINGING MORE WIND AND RAIN FOR THAT REGION.

MODEL DISCUSSION...FOR THE FIRST 60 HOURS MODELS PROVIDE THE SAME SOLUTION.
HOWEVER AT 60 HOURS THEY DIVERGE DRASTICALLY.  GFS SEEMS TO MATCH UKMET AND
ECMWF FAIRLY WELL...HOWEVER THESE MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR CONTINUITY OVER THE
PAST FEW RUNS.  ALTHOUGH ETA DIVERGES FROM THE OTHER THREE THE SOLUTION HAS
REMAINED THE SAME OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. FOR THIS REASON ETA IS SLIGHTLY
PREFERABLE.  MODEL CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS VERY LOW. THE CURRENT STRATEGY
IS TO KEEP CONTINUITY WITH THE PAST FORECAST...AND WAIT FOR THE NEW RUNS TO
SEE IF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS SETTLE OUT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...DEPENDS HIGHLY ON THE TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW PUSHING INTO
THE ALEUTIANS.  REGARDLESS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND WEST COAST SHOULD SEE RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE MAINLAND WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR THROUGH MID
WEEK AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE

LEW OCT 05