Gale Warning 757, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 282323 CCA
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT WED SEP 28 2005

CORRECTED ZONE PKZ171

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-291400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 976 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTH OF SEWARD WILL MOVE TO 60 NM NORTH OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND AND WEAKEN TO 985 MB BY FRI AFTERNOON. A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA THU AND FRI.

$$

PKZ150-291400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM ADT WED SEP 28 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ155-291400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM ADT WED SEP 28 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SHOWERS.  
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ160-291400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT WED SEP 28 2005

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEA 8 FT.

$$

PKZ165-291400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT WED SEP 28 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ180-291400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT WED SEP 28 2005

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ170-291400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM ADT WED SEP 28 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-291400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM ADT WED SEP 28 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ172-291400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT WED SEP 28 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEA 8 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEA 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ175-291400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT WED SEP 28 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-291400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT WED SEP 28 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT..

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ185-291400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT WED SEP 28 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ179-291400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT WED SEP 28 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT.
SHOWERS.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEA 11 FT.

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 291112
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT THU SEP 29 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-300200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 984 MB LOW 160 NM SOUTHEAST OF SEWARD WILL WEAKEN TO 992 MB AND
MOVE TO 40 NM SOUTH OF SEWARD BY SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN BERING ON FRI.
$$

PKZ150-300200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM ADT THU SEP 29 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-300200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM ADT THU SEP 29 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-300200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT THU SEP 29 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.   

$$

PKZ165-300200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT THU SEP 29 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-300200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT THU SEP 29 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-300200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT THU SEP 29 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-300200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT THU SEP 29 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS.  
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-300200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT THU SEP 29 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-300200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT THU SEP 29 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.MON...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-300200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT THU SEP 29 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 27 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-300200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT THU SEP 29 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-300200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT THU SEP 29 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT WED SEP 28 2005

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR KODIAK ISLAND CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE PLENTY OF WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE JET MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND PUSHING NORTHWARD OVER THE PANHANDLE.  300MB CHART SHOWS A 145KT
JET MAX EXITING THE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHICH SHOULD HELP
THE LOW TO SLIDE EASTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LOW CENTER IS VERTICALLY STACKED BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FAIRLY COLD ALOFT WITH -24 C AT THE 500 MB
LEVEL.  THESE FACTS INDICATE THE LOW WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS BUT STRONG SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THE BANDS OF SHOWERS ON THE MIDDLETON ISLAND RADAR AT THIS HOUR ARE
REFLECTING THAT FACT WELL.

AT 12Z THE MAIN OCCLUSION HAS MOVED ONTO THE MAINLAND AND IS NOW
STRETCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND UP
INTO THE TANANA VALLEY.  MODERATE RAIN MAY BE PRESENT IN UPSLOPE
AREAS WITH THE PASSING OF THE OCCLUSION.  BEHIND THE OCCLUSION
SHOWERS ARE HEAVY AT TIMES.  THESE SHOWERS MAY BE AMPLIFIED BY
SEVERAL POST FRONTAL TROUGHS...THE FIRST OF WHICH CAN BE SEEN MAKING
ITS WAY ONSHORE IN THE SOUTHCENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY TODAY BUT STRONG
WINDS...GREATER THAN 45 MPH...ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE MAINLAND AS
THE LOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN.  MARINE AREAS MAY SEE HIGHER GUSTS AND GALE
WARNINGS ARE EXPECTED OUT WEST IN PARTICULAR.

WEST OF THE MAINLAND...ALONG THE ALEUTIANS THE FLOW HAS BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE MAIN LOW CENTER. STRONG WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN FOR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BUT WEST OF NIKISKI A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE IS MOVING IN SO WINDS WILL DECREASE.  SHOWERS MAY BE PRESENT
BUT MARINE STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY WITH THE INCREASINGLY STABLE
ENVIRONMENT.

MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS SHOWED GOOD INITIALIZATION WITH UPPER AIR
DATA.  SOLUTIONS ARE VERY SIMILAR TODAY SO BOTH GFS AND ETA LOOK GOOD
FOR THE SHORT TERM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...GFS SHOWS SOME STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVING
FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND.  WHILE AT THIS POINT IT IS A
LITTLE EARLY FOR SNOW AT THE SURFACE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE A GOOD
DUSTING.  BY SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN TEMPORARILY CLEARING
THINGS OUT FOR THE ANCHORAGE FORECAST REGION. THIS GOOD WEATHER WILL
BE SHORTLIVED THOUGH AS THE NEXT STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA ON MONDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 132, 150, 155, 160, 165, 180, 170

LEW SEP 05