Gale Warning 649, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 252302
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT THU AUG 25 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-261400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 997 MB LOW 50 NM NORTHEAST OF COLD BAY WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA FRI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE BERING SEA FRI. A 1004
MB LOW 225 NM NORTHWEST OF ATTU FRI AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 100 NM
NORTH OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND AT 1006 MB SAT. A 1005 MB LOW WILL BE AT
180 NM WEST OF ATTU SAT.

$$

PKZ150-261400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM ADT THU AUG 25 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO N WIND 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 12 FT. SHOWERS. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-261400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM ADT THU AUG 25 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-261400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT THU AUG 25 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. SHOWERS. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-261400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT THU AUG 25 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-261400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT THU AUG 25 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-261400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM ADT THU AUG 25 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT TOWARD MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-261400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM ADT THU AUG 25 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT TOWARD MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-261400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT THU AUG 25 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-261400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT THU AUG 25 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SHOWERS. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-261400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT THU AUG 25 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-261400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT THU AUG 25 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-261400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT THU AUG 25 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG. SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 13 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT THU AUG 25 2005

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT THE PATTERN HAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS
MOVED TO THE EAST AND IS NOW POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE STATE.  MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE HAS MOVED OVER THE
SOUTHCENTRAL REGION WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING ONTO
THE WEST COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE JET HAS REPOSITIONED
ITSELF ON A WEST EAST AXIS.  THIS SHIFT IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
INDICATES THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL TAKE A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TRACK THAN
THE MOST RECENT SYSTEM.  UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE BERING.  THE 850MB CHART SHOWS SOME
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AT 500MB AND 300MB
ARE MINOR INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DOES NOT HAVE THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

IN SPITE OF THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THE GRADIENT AT THE
SURFACE IS TIGHT AND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ARE MODERATE.
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS
DIMINISHING BY THURSDAY EVENING.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS ARE ALWAYS A PROBLEM
WITH STABLE CONDITIONS IN THE BERING.

FOR THE MAINLAND THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SECTION
OF THE AK PENINSULA BRINGING RAIN TO BRISTOL BAY BUT HAVING LITTLE
EFFECT ON THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND DELTA.  IN THE EASTERN ZONES
MORNING FOG IS A CONCERN AFTER SKIES HAVE SCATTERED OUT OVERNIGHT.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SKIRT THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE STATE.  THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE KENAI PENINSULA AND THE PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS BUT EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
NORTHWARD.

DISCUSSION...THE GFS HAS BEEN FORECASTING THE CHANGE IN THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN FOR TWO TO THREE DAYS SO IT IS TRENDING RATHER WELL.  ETA HAS
PICKED UP ON THIS TREND AND NOW SHOWS THE SAME SOLUTION FOR THE NEXT
WEEK SO THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKWISE.  THE GFS IS
RUNNING SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE SYSTEM BUT SEEMS TO BE VERIFYING
WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.  OVERALL GFS LOOKS BEST.

EXTENDED FORECAST...THE RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BEGINS TO AFFECT THE MAINLAND.  THIS WILL
BRING GOOD WEATHER TO MOST ZONES FOR THE WEEKEND.  AT THE END OF
PERIOD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL NEAR THE SEWARD
PENINSULA.  THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA BY TUESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE WARNING 155 170 172 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LEW AUG 05