Gale Warning 629, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 171151
CWFAER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT WED AUG 17 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-180200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1004 MB LOW NEAR SITKINAK WILL DISSIPATE TODAY AS IT MERGES WITH A
LOW IN BRISTOL BAY. A SECOND LOW WILL DEVELOP TO 1004 MB OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT BECOMING 1000 MB OFF CAPE SUCKLING MIDDAY THU. A
THIRD LOW WILL DEVELOP TO 998 MB 250 NM SE OF SITKINAK BY EARLY FRI
MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-180200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT WED AUG 17 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT.
RAIN AND FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN AND FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
$$

PKZ121-180200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT WED AUG 17 2005

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN AND FOG ENDING.  
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 10 KT LATE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. S WIND 15 KT
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-180200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT WED AUG 17 2005
.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-180200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT WED AUG 17 2005

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-180200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT WED AUG 17 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. NE GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR AUGUSTINE ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING. HIGHER GUSTS NEAR AUGUSTINE
ISLAND IN THE EVENING. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN AND FOG. 
.THU...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-180200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT WED AUG 17 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT SHIFTING TO SW 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND FOG.

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-180200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT WED AUG 17 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT BY NOON. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN AND FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN AND FOG. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND FOG BECOMING SHOWERS.  
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-180200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT WED AUG 17 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 7 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING.
RAIN AND FOG.  
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT LATE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. 
SW WIND 15 KT AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-180200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT WED AUG 17 2005

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT BECOMING NE WIND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT LATE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. 
SW WIND 15 KT AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. SEAS 3 FT. 
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT TUE AUG 16 2005

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. STRATUS STILL
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND ALONG THE COAST UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS
TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS A FRONT MOVES TO THE
COAST. PLENTY OF SMOKE NORTH AND WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE.
HOWEVER...LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS PUSHING SMOKE AND FOG
OUT OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH APPROACHING FRONT. IN
ADDITION...SMOKE STARTING TO LIFT IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THERMAL
LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND WILL INITIATE ANY MOISTURE TO POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR MASS OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL MEAN
ISOLATED CONVECTION WHILE MORE MOIST AIR OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
AND BRISTOL BAY WILL MEAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

LOW TO PUSH INTO BRISTOL BAY BY TOMORROW WITH THE FRONT PUSHING
FARTHER INLAND AND TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST COAST WILL BE AT OR NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO TONIGHT.
THE FRONT ALSO PUSHES THE THERMAL LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TOMORROW. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE NORTHERN
AREAS OF THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE. THE WINDS
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL PICK UP WITH THE FRONT TO GALE
FORCE DUE TO TIGHTENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS
ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE EAST WEST ORIENTED
GAPS OF THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL. JET ROUNDING THE
UPPER LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY TO PULL THE LOW IN THE GULF ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE THERMAL LOW TO MOVE BACK INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA
SPARKING SOME CONVECTION THURSDAY.

LOW CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
REMAINING OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. AIR MASS RELATIVELY STABLE FRIDAY AS
COOLER AIR SETTLES OVER THE MAINLAND AND DEFINITELY SATURDAY WITH A
JET MAX DIVING SOUTH OVER THE STATE.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE BERING SEA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH THE LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD. A LOW WORKS INTO THE BERING
SEA FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND FLATTENING THE RIDGE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN AUG 05