Gale Warning 627, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 111207 CCA
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT THU AUG 11 2005

CORRECTED ZONE 170

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-120200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 996 MB LOW 325 NM NORTHWEST OF ATTU WILL MOVE NEAR KISKA AND WEAKEN
TO 1006 MB FRI NIGHT. THE WEATHER FRONT IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA
WILL DISSIPATE BY FRI.

$$

PKZ150-120200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM ADT THU AUG 11 2005

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-120200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM ADT THU AUG 11 2005

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-120200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT THU AUG 11 2005

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...WIND BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-120200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT THU AUG 11 2005

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES
NEAR COLD BAY. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-120200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT THU AUG 11 2005

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 30 KT NEAR HEADLANDS. SEAS 6
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-120200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT THU AUG 11 2005

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 25 KT EAST OF DUTCH HARBOR.
SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-120200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT THU AUG 11 2005

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-120200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT THU AUG 11 2005

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS
OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-120200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT THU AUG 11 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-120200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT THU AUG 11 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-120200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT THU AUG 11 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-120200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT THU AUG 11 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT WED AUG 10 2005

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE EASTWARD BUT
REMAINS STRONG. THE WEATHER FRONT WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE LAST FEW
DAYS IN THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH NUNIVAK ISLAND HAS PUSHED INTO
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND WESTERN BRISTOL BAY. HOWEVER IT IS WEAKENING
AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY.

STILL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MARINE STRATUS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. EXPECT IT TO PERSIST.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHWEST OF ATTU WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND
BE OVER KISKA SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE WORTH WATCHING DUE TO THE FACT
THAT THE GFS MODEL HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THIS WEEKEND OVER EACH OF THE LAST MODEL
RUNS. HOWEVER THE ETA AS WELL AS BOTH EUROPEAN MODELS DO NOT
ANTICIPATE SUCH A SPIN UP OF THIS LOW. STAY TUNED FOR MORE DETAILS AS
THIS LOW PROGRESSES.

AN INTERESTING FEATURE OF THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS IS THAT THERE HAS
BEEN A LARGE AMOUNT OF HIGH CAPE VALUES FORECAST TO STRETCH FROM THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND DOWN TO THE KENAI
PENINSULA. IN SPITE OF HIGH CAPE VALUES CONVECTION IS CONSIDERED
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. THIS IS DUE TO THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ALONG WITH RELATIVELY HIGH CIN
(CONVECTIVE INHIBITION) VALUES. RELATED TO THE CIN VALUES, THE
CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TEMPERATURES FROM RECENT ANCHORAGE AND MCGRATH
SOUNDINGS HAVE SHOWN THAT TEMPERATURES WOULD NEED TO APPROACH OR
EXCEED 100 FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THIS IS A STRONG HIGH - BUT NOT
NEARLY THAT STRONG.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 138.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

EZ AUG 05