Gale Warning 584, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT FRI JUL 8 2005

.DISCUSSION...STRATUS A BIG PROBLEM THIS MORNING WITH MANY LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCING FOG. MOST AREAS TO BURN OFF STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
HAVE A REBIRTH TONIGHT. STRATUS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA FROM
ONSHORE FLOW AND APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO GO
AWAY UNTIL FRONT GET CLOSER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 75N 170E TO BECOME A BIG FACTOR
IN THE WEEKENDS WEATHER OVER THE MAINLAND. RIGHT NOW...THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MAKING AN IMPACT ON THE WEST COAST OF
ALASKA. OUTSIDE OF THIS LOW...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS TO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. IN ADDITION...A WEAK LOW
MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS CURRENTLY WITH ANOTHER
MODERATE LOW OVER THE PANHANDLE.

THE PANHANDLE LOW TO DRIVE INLAND TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WHILE THE LOW
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN SPINS UP IN THE EASTERN GULF BY SUNDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH THE LOW IN THE ARCTIC
SWEEPS THROUGH CENTRAL ALASKA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL COOL AND
STABILIZE THE AIRMASS OVER THE INTERIOR AS IT PASSES. CURRENTLY AND
UP TO THE COOLING...THE AIR MASS OVER THE MAINLAND IS UNSTABLE ALONG
A THERMAL TROUGH FROM THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY EAST ACROSS THE MAINLAND
TODAY AND TOMORROW. ENOUGH OF A CAP FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE ALEUTIAN RANGE THIS MORNING TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION. EXPECT AIRMASS TO WARM ENOUGH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING FOR SOME CONVECTION TO POP FROM THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
EASTWARD. ANTICIPATING SCATTERED CONVECTION NORTH OF ANCHORAGE TO
ILIAMNA LINE...ISOLATED SOUTH TODAY. CONVECTION SHOULD BE A BIT MORE
TOMORROW AS 850 TEMPS INCREASE A BIT AHEAD OF THE THE FRONT ADDING TO
THE INSTABILITY. FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER WESTERN
ALASKA STABILIZING THE AIR MASS THERE AND THEN WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA BY SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
THERMAL SURFACE TROUGH THEN IS EFFECTIVELY PUSHED EAST OF ALASKA.
THESE FEATURES BUILD BACK INTO EXTREME EASTERN ALASKA TUESDAY AND
FARTHER WEST WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...THIS MAKES THE AIRMASS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL UNSTABLE AND WEST TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY.

AS THIS IS ALL GOING ON OVER THE MAINLAND...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND BERING SEA GIVES WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A
LOW WORKS INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN SUNDAY AND PROGRESSES
EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MODERATE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO ACCOMPANY THE LOW ON
ITS TRACK. THE LOW PARKS OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY WITH
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. ANOTHER
LOW WORKS TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AGAIN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN JUL 05