Gale Warning 561, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 052322
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT SUN JUN 5 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-061400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 997 MB LOW 200 NM SW OF DUTCH HARBOR SUN AFTERNOON TO MOVE TO 50 NM
S OF DUTCH HARBOR MON AFTERNOON AT 995 MB. THE LOW WILL THEN
STRENGTHEN TO 988 MB 75 NM S OF DUTCH HARBOR TUE AFTERNOON. A 997 MB
LOW 325 NM S OF SHEMYA MON AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 300 NM SE OF DUTCH
HARBOR TUE AFTERNOON AT 989 MB. 
$$

PKZ150-061400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM ADT SUN JUN 5 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-061400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM ADT SUN JUN 5 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-061400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT SUN JUN 5 2005

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.   

$$

PKZ165-061400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT SUN JUN 5 2005

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-061400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT SUN JUN 5 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-061400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM ADT SUN JUN 5 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-061400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM ADT SUN JUN 5 2005

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS.  
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-061400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT SUN JUN 5 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.  
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.   

$$

PKZ175-061400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT SUN JUN 5 2005

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-061400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT SUN JUN 5 2005

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.  
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-061400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT SUN JUN 5 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-061400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT SUN JUN 5 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
 
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT SUN JUN 5 2005

.DISCUSSION...

...HEMISPHERIC...
RUSSIAN ROPE REGIME CONTINUES WITH 6/7 WAVES OVER THE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE AND ANCHOR LOW EAST OF GREENLAND. AOR CURRENTLY EFFECTED
BY TWO TROUGH WITH A SLIGHT RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO.

...AT THE SURFACE...

MAIN FEATURE IS A LOW ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ADAK. SATELLITE
ANALYSIS PUTS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 991 MB. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. IN THE EAST, A WEAK
SURFACE LOW NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND IS HELPING TO PROVIDE SOME
INSTABILITY FOR THE REGION. RADAR INDICATES SOME SHOWERS CONTINUING
INTO THE MORNING WITH A FEW GUSTS TO OVER 30 MPH.

...FOR THE FORECAST...
THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS WITH THE FORECAST PACKAGE. AT FIRST
GLANCE ALL OF THE MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH THE
LOCATION OF THE LOW OUT WEST AND THE WEAK FEATURE IN THE EAST. GFS
GETS THE NOD IN THE EAST DUE TO IT BRINGING IN A RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN COAST WHICH IS A TYPICAL REPLACEMENT FOR WEAK LOWS IN THE
AREA. CAPE, LIFTED INDEX, AND VERTICAL TOTAL VALUES AND MAXIMA
LOCATIONS ARE ALL SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DAY, SO EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS. OUT WEST, THE
GFS REMAINS THE FAVORED SOLUTION AS IT INITIALIZED THE BEST WITH THE
PRESSURE OF THE LOW. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY, ALL SOLUTIONS TRACK
THE LOW OUT WEST TO DUTCH HARBOR BY MONDAY MORNING.

...FURTHER OUT...
THE NEW SOLUTION FROM THE GFS FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE PACKAGE DOES NOT
LOOK SOUND. IT HAS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PARKED NEAR DUTCH HARBOR AND
THEN QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST. CURRENTLY AM VERY HESITANT TO BELIEVE
THAT THE ANCHOR LOW WOULD GO FROM BEING STATIONARY TO RAPIDLY
PROGRESSING TO THE EAST. DID NOT TOUCH THE EXTENDED GRIDS FOR
FORECASTS IN BOTH THE EAST AND THE WEST DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
ANOTHER COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS WILL NEED TO COME ACROSS WITH A SIMILAR
IDEA BEFORE IT IS FULLY EMBRACED. MOST LIKELY OUTCOME WILL BE THE LOW
PUSHING TO THE EAST BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAST AS THE CURRENT RUN
SUGGESTS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

BELL JUN 05