Gale Warning 548, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 290114 CCA
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT SAT MAY 28 2005

CORRECTED AREA 3B

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-291400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE NORTH GULF OF
ALASKA THROUGH MONDAY. A 1002 MB LOW NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS WILL
MOVE WEST AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A 990 MB LOW 120 NM SOUTHWEST OF
COLD BAY WILL MOVE TO 110 NM NORTH OF DUTCH HARBOR AT 995 MB MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-291400-
AREA 2B. CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT SAT MAY 28 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-291400-
AREA 2B1. RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT SAT MAY 28 2005

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-291400-
AREA 2C. PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT SAT MAY 28 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-291400-
AREA 2C4. PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT SAT MAY 28 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-291400-
AREA 3A. BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT SAT MAY 28 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
STRONGEST WINDS NORTHWEST OF BARREN ISLANDS. SEAS 8 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO E WIND 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-291400-
AREA 3B. SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT SAT MAY 28 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-291400-
AREA 3C. SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT SAT MAY 28 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-291400-
AREA 4. COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT SAT MAY 28 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO EAST 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-291400-
AREA 4A. KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT SAT MAY 28 2005

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT SAT MAY 28 2005

.DISCUSSION...

THE WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE IS BEING DOMINATED BY
A LARGE LOW 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR ALONG WITH FOUR SHORT
WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE 500 MB CENTER. THE FIRST WAVE WILL BE
IMPACTING THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING. THE SECOND IS MOVING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE LOW AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF NEAR 160W. THE THIRD
IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE FOURTH IS
LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA NEAR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. ALL THREE
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL WITH LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN
FEATURES. DIFFERENCES ARISE AFTER 36 HOURS AS A LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD
FROM EASTERN SIBERIA. UKMET AND GFS ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT ON THE
FEATURE WITH ETA40 SLOWER AND WEAKER. THIS CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE
DOMAIN RESTRICTIONS OF THE LATTER MODEL.

ON THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL
BE IMPACTING THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING. IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LARGE 500 MB CENTER...TWO LOWS ROTATING AROUND A COMMON AXIS WILL
SWITCH PLACES AND MERGE OVER DUTCH HARBOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEW
COMBINED LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERING SEA. PROBLEMS ARISE WITH MODEL DIVERGENCE AT 36 HOURS AS A
COLD AIR MASS DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF EASTERN SIBERIA. THE DIFFERENCES
WILL BE REFLECTED ON THE SURFACE BY POSITIONING AND STRENGTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE
BASE OF THE 500 MB LOW. THIS WILL BE A CONCERN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...THE FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF THIS
MORNING AND ITS IMPACTS WILL INCLUDE MORE RAIN IN UPSLOPE AREAS AND
STRONG WINDS THROUGH FUNNELED TERRAIN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC... NONE.
MARINE...GALES 2B.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB MAY 05