Gale Warning 532, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 122354
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT THU MAY 12 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-131400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 990 MB LOW 390 NM NORTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE TO 150 NM
NORTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR AND DISSIPATE THU NIGHT. A 991 MB LOW 260
NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE TO 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH
HARBOR FRI NIGHT AND DISSIPATES ON SAT. 
$$

PKZ150-131400-
AREA 5A. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA      
SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE
400 PM ADT THU MAY 12 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO SE WIND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-131400-
AREA 5B. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA      
CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT THU MAY 12 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-131400-
AREA 6A. BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT THU MAY 12 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SOUTHEAST 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-131400-
AREA 6B. PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT THU MAY 12 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO E 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-131400-
AREA 8. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT THU MAY 12 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-131400-
AREA 12A. EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM ADT THU MAY 12 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-131400-
AREA 12A1. UNALASKA BAY
400 PM ADT THU MAY 12 2005

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-131400-
AREA 12B. EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT THU MAY 12 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-131400-
AREA 13A. WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT THU MAY 12 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-131400-
AREA 13B. WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT THU MAY 12 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-131400-
AREA 14. ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT THU MAY 12 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-131400-
AREA 15. PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT THU MAY 12 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT THU MAY 12 2005

.DISCUSSION...

...HEMISPHERIC...
5 WAVE PATTERN WITH LARGE FLATTENED TROUGH OVER ALASKA. MAIN FEATURE
IS ELONGATED ZONAL FLOW FROM JAPAN EAST INTO THE LOWER 48 COAST.

...AT THE SURFACE...
GENERALLY WEAK SURFACE FEATURES WITH FOUR LOWS ALL SOUTH OF THE STATE
STRETCHING FROM 165E TO 145W. RADAR RETURNS ARE THE MOST IMPRESSIVE
NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AS MOISTURE AROUND A LOW
MOVES TOWARD THE STATE.

...FOR THE FORECAST...
GOOD AGREEMENT AT 500 MB AS THE FLAT FLOW FROM ASIA CONTINUES TO
STREAM EASTWARD TO THE WEST COAST. OUT TO 60 HOURS ALL AGREE WITH
MAIN UPPER LOW BEING JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK.

SURFACE PROGS DO NOT SHOW THE SAME LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF ALASKA. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH LARGE COMPLEX AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE, THE MODELS TEND TO DO A POOR JOB WITH EXACT POSITIONS
AND ACCURATELY PREDICTING THE PRESSURE LEVELS. SO, CONFIDENCE WITH
THE PACKAGE IS BELOW AVERAGE. OVERALL PREFER THE UKMET AS IT COMES
THE CLOSEST TO A MEDIAN SOLUTION.

FURTHER OUT WEST...ALL FOUR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW
FROM THE NORTHERN BERING SEA TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

FURTHER OUT...LOW COMPLEX SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND NORTH BY SUNDAY.
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INLAND OVER A LARGE CHUNK OF THE EASTERN AOR BY
THIS TIME. OUT WEST, COOL NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 2A 3A 3C
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

BELL MAY 05