Gale Warning 520, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 051103
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT THU MAY 5 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA + BRISTOL BAY + THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-060200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA + BRISTOL BAY + THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 989 MB LOW CENTERED 100 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY THU MORNING WILL MOVE
TO 250 NM SOUTHEAST OF COLD BAY AT 996 MB BY FRI MORNING AND TO 300
NM SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK AT 1004 MB BY SAT MORNING. A 1008 MB LOW
CENTERED 350 NM WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND THU MORNING WILL MOVE TO
500 NM NORTH OF KISKA AT 1002 MB BY FRI MORNING AND TO 250 NM WEST OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND AT 1003 MB BY SAT MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-060200-
AREA 5A. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO
CASTLE CAPE
400 AM ADT THU MAY 5 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-060200-
AREA 5B. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA  CASTLE
CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT THU MAY 5 2005

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-060200-
AREA 6A. BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT THU MAY 5 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-060200-
AREA 6B. PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT THU MAY 5 2005

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-060200-
AREA 8. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT THU MAY 5 2005

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-060200-
AREA 12A. EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT THU MAY 5 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-060200-
AREA 12A1. UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT THU MAY 5 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-060200-
AREA 12B. EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT THU MAY 5 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-060200-
AREA 13A. WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT THU MAY 5 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-060200-
AREA 13B. WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT THU MAY 5 2005

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-060200-
AREA 14. ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT THU MAY 5 2005

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-060200-
AREA 15. PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT THU MAY 5 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. HIGHER GUSTS THIS MORNING NEAR SAINT GEORGE.
SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT WED MAY 4 2005

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAJOR REORIENTATION OF LARGE SCALE 500 MB FEATURES CONTINUES. THE
HIGH THAT PREVIOUSLY DOMINATED THE BERING AND EASTERN SIBERIA
CONTINUES TO SHIFT WEST. THE MAJOR LOW THAT CROSSED THE DATELINE
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS YESTERDAY HAS SLOWED AND CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
AND FLOW OVER INTERIOR ALASKA HAS CHANGED FROM EASTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AS A DEEP COLD LOW DROPS SOUTH OUT OF THE ARCTIC AND
INTO THE BERING STRAITS. A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH JET IS CARRYING VERY
COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN SIBERIA...INTO THE WESTERN
BERING...AND AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC.

GFS UKMET AND NAM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL ABOUT 05/06Z.
FOLLOWING THIS ITS DIFFICULT TO DECIDE WHICH OF THE THREE DIVERGENT
SOLUTIONS IS BEST. THE CAUSE OF THE DIVERGENCE IS SOMEWHAT EASIER TO
DETERMINE HOWEVER...AND ORIGINATES WITH AN IMPULSE ROUNDING THE
ARCTIC NEAR 70N 178E AT 05/06Z. THE TWO GLOBAL MODELS HAVE THIS
IMPULSE STRONGER AND SLOWER THAN THE NAM. BY 05/18Z THE TWO GLOBAL
MODELS DIG A NEW LOW OUT OF THE BASE OF THE RIDGE IN CENTRAL SIBERIA
WHILE THE NAM DROPS ITS WEAKER VERSION OF THE IMPULSE DOWN THE
STRAITS...RIGHT BEHIND THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE BERING STRAITS. THIS
DIFFERENCE IN TURN RESULTS IN A GROWING DIFFERENCE IN HOW THE MODELS
DUMBBELL THE NEW LOW AROUND THE MAJOR LOW SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS...AND IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE STRAITS.

NONE OF THIS MAKES MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN THE EASTERN DOMAIN THROUGH
DAY THREE...BUT FOR THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE TWO GLOBAL
MODELS MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLE EACH OTHER THAN ANY COMPARISON INVOLVING
THE NAM. THEREFORE FOR NOW THE GFS SEEMS THE SAFEST CHOICE IN THE
BERING BEYOND 30 HRS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WARNINGS FOR MCGRATH AND ANIAK...ZONE 151.
         ICE JAM FLOOD WATCH FOR UPPER AND LOWER KALSKAG...ZONE 151.
MARINE...GALES 3B 3C 5A 5B 6A 6B 8 12A 12B 13A 14 GULF OF ALASKA
         BERING SEA
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

STKM APR 05