Gale Warning 470, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 131124
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT WED APR 13 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-140200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 991 MB LOW NEAR ATTU WILL DISSIPATE 225 NM SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH
HARBOR THU MORNING. A 980 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 450 NM SOUTH OF ATTU
THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-140200-
AREA 5A. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO
CASTLE CAPE
400 AM ADT WED APR 13 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-140200-
AREA 5B. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA  CASTLE
CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT WED APR 13 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-140200-
AREA 6A. BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT WED APR 13 2005

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-140200-
AREA 6B. PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT WED APR 13 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-140200-
AREA 8. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT WED APR 13 2005

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-140200-
AREA 12A. EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT WED APR 13 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-140200-
AREA 12A1. UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT WED APR 13 2005

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-140200-
AREA 12B. EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT WED APR 13 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-140200-
AREA 13A. WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT WED APR 13 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-140200-
AREA 13B. WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT WED APR 13 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-140200-
AREA 14. ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT WED APR 13 2005

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT.

$$

PKZ179-140200-
AREA 15. PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT WED APR 13 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM ADT TUE APR 12 2005

.DISCUSSION...

.ANALYSIS...THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE NIGHT ARE A LARGE CLOSED LOW
CENTERED WEST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA NEAR 50N 134W...A SHORT-WAVE
RIDGE CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN AKPENN NORTHWESTWARD
TO SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND AND BACK WEST TO EASTERN SIBERIA...AND A
MORE TIGHTLY WOUND CLOSED LOW LOCATED BETWEEN KAMCHATKA AND THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. AS FAR AS SENSIBLE WEATHER...WEAK SHORT-WAVES
ARE ROTATING AROUND EASTERN CLOSED LOW WITH A WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION OF ONE OF THESE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OR PRECIP WITH THIS LOW. MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS ARE MOVING FROM THE YUKON INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND
DISSIPATING AS THEY RUN INTO RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE EASTERN
BERING. ALASKA RANGE IS BLOCKING ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PRECIP
THAT MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVES. THE
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IS PRODUCING A FAIRLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM KODIAK ISLAND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.
THIS IS COMBINING WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY FRO KODIAK ISLAND AND
VICINITY WHERE A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE TREND IS FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AS THE LOW OVER THE GULF WEAKENS.
BECAUSE OF THE WINDS TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL REMAIN FAIRLY
MILD IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH SOME 20S INLAND. SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS
CALM AND CLEAR WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. OUT WEST A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM A LOW JUST EAST OF KAMCHATKA SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THIS IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD
WITH RAIN/SNOW AND SMALL CRAFT TO MINIMUM GALE WINDS. A WAVE FORMED
ALONG THE FRONT SOUTH OF ATKA LAST EVENING BUT HAS NOT DEVELOPED
ANY FURTHER. IF ANYTHING THE GRADIENT MAY BE A BIT TIGHTER THAN
THE MODELS INDICATE. ANOTHER FRONT FROM A LOW EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF KAMCHATKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL ANALYSIS...GFS/NAM/UKMET IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA BUT CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF PATTERN OUT OVER THE
BERING SEA. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL IDEA OF TRACKING MAIN UPPER LOW ACROSS BERING
THEN UNDERCUTTING RIDGE AND MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC LOOKS GOOD. SINCE NAM USUALLY DOES POORLY OUT WEST HAVE
DECIDED TO BASE THIS MORNINGS FORECASTS OFF OF THE GFS.

.SHORT-TERM FORECASTS...CLOSED LOW OFF OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND IT WILL BE HELD OFF TO THE EAST BY UPPER RIDGE OVER
EASTERN BERING/SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
ONLY IMPACT ON SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS
A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE IN THE COPPER RIVER ZONE AND
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST NEAR CORDVOVA ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE
EXPECT CONTINUED DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL BECOME STATIONARY FROM JUST WEST OF COLD BAY
NORTHWEST TO THE PRIBILOFS TONIGHT AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE
ANOTHER FRONT WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS ALONG IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY TO THE COLD BAY-PRIBILOFS LINE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF KAMCHATKA WILL
TRACK EAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS TODAY AND UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE
RIDGE WILL PE PUSHED NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE BERING ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND IT WILL FORM MULTIPLE SURFACE LOWS. THIS IS WHAT
THE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING. EXPECT CONTINUED WET
CONDITIONS ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.EXTENDED FORECASTS...CONTINUE TO HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN
MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS WITH SEVERAL CUT-OFF LOWS AROUND THE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE. THESE ARE NORMALLY NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS.
HAVING SAID THAT THE TREND FOR THIS PART OF THE WORLD HAS BEEN TO
INDICATE A CHANGE TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN LATE THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH TROUGH OVER THE BERING AND RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF U.S./CANADA. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND OVER THE WEEKEND AND A CHANCE OF PRECIP THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE BERING REGION AS USUAL WILL REMAIN WET
WITH OCCASIONAL GALES FORCE WINDS AS FRONTS MOVE THROUGH.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES AREAS 14 AND 15.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB APR 05