Gale Warning 459, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 081539 AAA
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
740 AM ADT FRI APR 8 2005

UPDATE ZONE 170

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-090200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 988 MB LOW 215 NM SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA FRI NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A
WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SAT NIGHT.
$$

PKZ150-090200-
AREA 5A. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO
CASTLE CAPE
400 AM ADT FRI APR 8 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-090200-
AREA 5B. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA  CASTLE
CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT FRI APR 8 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-090200-
AREA 6A. BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT FRI APR 8 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-090200-
AREA 6B. PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT FRI APR 8 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-090200-
AREA 8. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT FRI APR 8 2005

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-090200-
AREA 12A. EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
740 AM ADT FRI APR 8 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. VISIBILITIES
LOCALLY REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1 NM IN BLOWING SNOW AND SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-090200-
AREA 12A1. UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT FRI APR 8 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-090200-
AREA 12B. EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT FRI APR 8 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-090200-
AREA 13A. WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT FRI APR 8 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.  
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-090200-
AREA 13B. WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT FRI APR 8 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-090200-
AREA 14. ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT FRI APR 8 2005

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SNOW SHOWERS.  
.TONIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SNOW SHOWERS.  
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NW WIND 25 KT.   
.MON...S WIND 20 KT.  
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT.   

$$

PKZ179-090200-
AREA 15. PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT FRI APR 8 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 082339
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT FRI APR 8 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-091400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 985 MB LOW 350 NM SOUTHEAST OF COLD BAY WILL MOVE TO 250 NM EAST
OF
KODIAK CITY SUN AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM
THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC OCEAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA SUN AFTERNOON. A 999 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 320 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SHEMYA SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-091400-
AREA 5A. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO
CASTLE CAPE
400 PM ADT FRI APR 8 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-091400-
AREA 5B. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA  CASTLE
CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT FRI APR 8 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.

.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-091400-
AREA 6A. BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT FRI APR 8 2005

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-091400-
AREA 6B. PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT FRI APR 8 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-091400-
AREA 8. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT FRI APR 8 2005

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT.   

$$

PKZ170-091400-
AREA 12A. EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM ADT FRI APR 8 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-091400-
AREA 12A1. UNALASKA BAY
400 PM ADT FRI APR 8 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-091400-
AREA 12B. EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT FRI APR 8 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-091400-
AREA 13A. WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT FRI APR 8 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-091400-
AREA 13B. WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT FRI APR 8 2005

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-091400-
AREA 14. ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT FRI APR 8 2005

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT.  
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.  
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT.   

$$

PKZ179-091400-
AREA 15. PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT FRI APR 8 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW
SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
215 AM ADT FRI APR 8 2005

.DISCUSSION...

.ANALYSIS...TWO SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR AT THE MOMENT.
ONE AT 50N/164W WITH AN ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF 990 MB AND ANOTHER
AT 52.6N/166.6W WITH A PRESSURE OF 990 MB. THE SOUTHERN LOW IS THE
MORE IMPRESSIVE OF THE TWO AND HAS UPPER JET SUPPORT WHICH IS
STEERING IT OFF TO THE ENE. QUIKSCAT INDICATES 30 TO 35 KTS ON THE
SW TO SE SECTORS OF THE LOW. THE NORTHERN LOW...ALTHOUGH NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE...HAS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION TO
ITS NORTH AND WEST. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS CAN
BE FOUND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW (ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS).
ALSO SOME SNOW RIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW CENTER. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE BERING SEA REGION MAINLY COLD ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS AND
NORTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTHERN LOW EASTWARD ACROSS THE AKPENN AND SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF. THIS IS MOVING EVER SO SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A FEW SMALL VORT-MAXES
PRODUCING SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST.

.FORECAST...ETA/UKMET VERIFYING BEST WITH THE POSITION OF THE TWO
SURFACE LOWS. ETA IS TOO WEAK AS USUAL. TRACK OF SOUTHERN LOW INTO
GULF IS HANDLED SIMILARLY BY THE THREE MODELS THROUGH 48 HOURS
BEFORE DIVERGING TO SEPARATE SOLUTIONS. PREFER THE GFS TRACK (IT
HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL OF LATE). HOWEVER THINK THE
DEPTH OF THE LOW WILL BE SOMETHING MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE
UKMET WHICH WEAKENS THE STORM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AS UPPER JET
MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH. FOR SOUTH CENTRAL...EXPECT SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE...MAINLY ALONG THE GULF COAST AS WEAK FRONT MOVES TO THE
COAST AND DISSIPATES THIS EVENING. OCCLUSION FROM LOW MOVING INTO
GULF WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW SATURDAY AND
DISSIPATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SERVE TO CONTINUE SHOWERS ALONG
THE COAST WITH AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER MAKING IT INLAND. THE LOW WILL
FINALLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH MONDAY BRINGING A DRYING TREND TO
SOUTH CENTRAL. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S INLAND AND 30S ALONG
THE COAST.

OUT WEST...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS FROM WEST OF THE
BERING STRAIT SOUTHWARD TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD AND MODERATE COLD ADVECTION WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE BERING
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL BERING
SUNDAY AS A CUT-OFF LOW MOVES TOWARD THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. A WARM
FRONT WILL REACH WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE SUNDAY WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
AND RAIN. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN MOST OF THE MAIN
FEATURES AND THUS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

EXTENDED FORECAST...HEMISPHERIC PATTERN REMAINS IN LIMBO WITH
SEVERAL CUT-OFF LOWS WANDERING AROUND. THUS HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECASTS. WESTERN PACIFIC CUT-OFF PROGGED TO TRACK EASTWARD
TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND BY THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK. SO AFTER A BRIEF
COOL DOWN OVER THE MAINLAND AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AND WARMING
OUT WEST MAY QUICKLY REVERSE BACK TO THE CURRENT SET UP OF WEAK
WARM ADVECTION OVER THE MAINLAND AND COLD ADVECTION OVER THE BERING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES AREA 12A. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING AREAS 6A 15.

SEB APR 05