Gale Warning 373, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 200049
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST SAT MAR 19 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-201500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE W COAST OF ALASKA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY SUN NIGHT. A FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
BERING SEA WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN TONIGHT BUT A LOW ON THE FRONT WILL
DEVELOP TO 990 MB WELL S OF ADAK BY SUN NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-201500-
AREA 5A. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO
CASTLE CAPE
400 PM AST SAT MAR 19 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-201500-
AREA 5B. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA  CASTLE
CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST SAT MAR 19 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 15 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-201500-
AREA 6A. BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AST SAT MAR 19 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE..VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ165-201500-
AREA 6B. PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST SAT MAR 19 2005

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-201500-
AREA 8. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AST SAT MAR 19 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT INCREASING TO NE 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ170-201500-
AREA 12A. EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AST SAT MAR 19 2005

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 10 KT BY MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-201500-
AREA 12A1. UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AST SAT MAR 19 2005

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 10 KT BY MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-201500-
AREA 12B. EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AST SAT MAR 19 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ175-201500-
AREA 13A. WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AST SAT MAR 19 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-201500-
AREA 13B. WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST SAT MAR 19 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 15 KT. 
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-201500-
AREA 14. ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST SAT MAR 19 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-201500-
AREA 15. PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST SAT MAR 19 2005

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS INCREASING TO NE 20 KT.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST FRI MAR 18 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS - A MAJOR UPPER RIDGE WITH A HIGH CENTER NEAR KODIAK IS OVER
SW ALASKA THIS MORNING WITH AN EXTENSION TOWARD BANKS ISLAND. A MAJOR
UPPER LOW IS OVER 46N 168W AT 12Z FRI OVER A 990 MB GALE FORCE
CENTER. THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAS STALLED AROUND 50N AT 18Z WITH A WARM
FRONT GONE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. OTHER THAN 250 MB WINDS
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AROUND 80 KNOTS...A WESTERLY JET IS PERSISTENT
ALONG 30N. A 1043 MB HIGH CELL IS OVER NW CANADA THIS MORNING WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO SIBERIA.

AER FORECASTS - THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE AGAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
THIS MORNING ALL FORECASTING A CLOSED UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER SW
ALASKA SAT THAT MOVES OVER PACD SAT NIGHT. THIS SETS UP OFFSHORE FLOW
FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
SIGNIFICANT DIURNAL TEMPERATURE VARIATION. WE ARE STILL KEEPING AN
EYE ON A POSSIBLE WIND EVENT DEVELOPING SUN NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE
DROPS DOWN THE ALCAN SIDE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE
GULF. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOR THE EASTERN SECTIONS LIKE
VALDEZ AND THE COPPER RIVER DELTA ALTHOUGH SOME SIGNIFICANT N WIND
WILL ALSO DEVELOP WILL BLOWING DUST FOR THE REST OF THE AER AREA.
THE ETA MODEL IN AWIPS HANDLES THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS BEST IN
AN EVENT LIKE THIS ONE. WE WILL ALSO LOOK AT THE RAMMS AND MM5 AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

ALU FORECASTS - LOOK FOR THE LOW S OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW FOR THE SW COAST.
WITH THE UPPER HIGH OVER COLD BAY 12Z SUN...THE STRONG S FLOW ALOFT
THAT DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH REMAINS W OF 175W INTO
MON. A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT FROM
A STORM NEAR THE KURILES WITH A SECONDARY LOW FORMING S OF THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SUN. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE THE BIG DEAL FOR THE SW
ALASKA COAST INTO THE BERING SEA THROUGH MON.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY 131 161 181 185 187 191.
MARINE...GALES 155 165 170 175 176 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JC MAR 05