Gale Warning 262, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 231825 AAA
CWFAER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
920 AM AST WED FEB 23 2005

...UPDATED FOR AREAS 3A, 3C AND 4.

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-240300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 994 MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN SHELIKOF STRAIT WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. THE
MAIN SURFACE LOW AROUND 987 MB 200 NM SE OF SAND POINT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL WEAKEN TO 1000 MB OVER SITKINAK ISLAND THU NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEVELOP TO 1000 MB NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND THU NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ120-240300-
AREA 2B. CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST WED FEB 23 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-240300-
AREA 2B1. RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST WED FEB 23 2005

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-240300-
AREA 2C. PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST WED FEB 23 2005

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES LATE.
SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 4 FT. 
SHOWERS. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-240300-
AREA 2C4. PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST WED FEB 23 2005

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SHOWERS. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-240300-
AREA 3A. BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
920 AM AST WED FEB 23 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-240300-
AREA 3B. SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST WED FEB 23 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-240300-
AREA 3C. SHELIKOF STRAIT
920 AM AST WED FEB 23 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-240300-
AREA 4. COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
920 AM AST WED FEB 23 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. STRONGEST WIND SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
STRONGEST WIND SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-240300-
AREA 4A. KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST WED FEB 23 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1230 PM AST TUE FEB 22 2005

.DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY...THE LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC PUSHING A
FRONT ALONG THE COAST WITH A SURFACE LOW REFLECTED ALONG IT NEAR
KODIAK ISLAND. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH THIS FRONT
CREATING SOME AREA OF WIND SHEAR. ALSO SEEING MANY MARINE AREAS WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS. LOTS OF STRATUS AROUND THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING AS WELL. EXPECT THIS TO STAY IN SOME OF THE WESTERN AREAS AS
FORCING NOT THAT STRONG TO LIFT IT OUT. EAST OF THE ALASKA
RANGE...THE FOG WILL LIFT AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND. WITH THE STRONG
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT...SEEING SOME DOWNSLOPE CHARACTERISTICS INLAND
IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT...WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME PRECIP TO THESE AREAS. FRONT TO DIMINISH AS IT WORKS
INLAND AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. STILL
EXPECTED TO SEE PLENTY OF PRECIP ALONG THE COAST WITH THE LONG
SOUTHERLY FETCH INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE PANHANDLE.

A STACKED LOW NEAR 50N 159W WITH A STRONG JET ORIENTED NORTH SOUTH
ALONG 145W. THIS IS WHERE THE MEAN RIDGE IS SITUATED EXTENDING FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN ALASKA. A COUPLE SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL FEED ALONG THE JET TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING A
COUPLE FRONTS TO THE GULF COAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. EACH WAVE TO HELP
PUSH THE LOW NORTH AND THE RIDGE AXIS EAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. IN
ADDITION...HELP IN SWINGING THE STACKED LOW NORTH IS ANOTHER LOW
DEVELOPING NEAR 45N 155W THURSDAY. THIS LOW DEVELOPED OUT OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA. IN THE MEANTIME...A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER KAMCHATKA WILL SPIN UP INTO A SURFACE LOW
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN CHAIN BEFORE WEAKENING. THE LOW FILLS
AND IS REPLACED TO THE SOUTH BY ANOTHER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
KAMCHATKA UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS LOW TOO WILL WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIAN CHAIN INTO THE WEEKEND AND REPLACED BY ANOTHER LOW TO ITS
SOUTH. THE REPEATED WAVES MOVING OUT OF THE KAMCHATKA LOW WEAKEN IT
TO THE POINT THAT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE LOW HAS FILLED A BIT WITH AN
ELONGATED TROUGH FROM ITSELF TO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC NEAR 40N 140W.
EACH ONE OF THESE WAVES WILL ALSO FEED INTO THE LOW OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND BUILD BACK THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND INTERIOR
BY SUNDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 2B 3A 3B 3C 4
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 14
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN FEB 05