Gale Warning 194, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 020015
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST TUE FEB 1 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-021500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL DEVELOP
INTO A 994 MB LOW 50 NM E OF MIDDLETON ISLAND TUE NIGHT. THE LOW WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKEN TO 1005 MB BY THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-021500-
AREA 2B. CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST TUE FEB 1 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRONGER GUSTS TO 
60 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRONGER GUSTS TO 55 KT
OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. STRONGER GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF THE 
COPPER RIVER DELTA. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA.
SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ121-021500-
AREA 2B1. RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST TUE FEB 1 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 6 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 5 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-021500-
AREA 2C. PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST TUE FEB 1 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRONGER GUSTS TO 60 KT
THROUGH NORTHERN BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EASTERN SOUND. SEAS 7 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRONGER GUSTS TO 55 KTS
THROUGH NORTHERN BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EASTERN SOUND. SEAS 6 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. STRONGER GUSTS TO 35 KTS THROUGH 
NORTHERN BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EASTERN SOUND. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ129-021500-
AREA 2C4. PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST TUE FEB 1 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 5 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 4 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-021500-
AREA 3A. BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST TUE FEB 1 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS SOUTHWEST OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE NW WIND 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 13 FT
SOUTHWEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. SEAS 8 FT ELSEWHERE. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY NORTHEAST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS SOUTHWEST OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE NW WIND 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 13 FT
SOUTHWEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. SEAS 8 FT ELSEWHERE. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY NORTHEAST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 9 FT SOUTHWEST
OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. SEAS 4 FT ELSEWHERE. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
NORTHEAST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ132-021500-
AREA 3B. SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST TUE FEB 1 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ138-021500-
AREA 3C. SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST TUE FEB 1 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. 
STRONGER GUSTS TO 60 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES WEST OF KARLUK. 
SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 6 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ140-021500-
AREA 4. COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST TUE FEB 1 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. HIGHER GUSTS SOUTH OF THE FORELANDS. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT NORTH OF THE FORELANDS AND 8 FT SOUTH OF
THE FORELANDS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. HIGHER GUSTS SOUTH OF THE FORELANDS. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT NORTH OF THE FORELANDS AND 8 FT SOUTH OF
THE FORELANDS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ141-021500-
AREA 4A. KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST TUE FEB 1 2005

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 4 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 5 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST MON JAN 31 2005

.DISCUSSION...

500 MB HIGH IS THROUGH THE BERING STRAITS WITH STRONG UPPER LOW
PERSISTING NEAR 50N 165W. MAJOR SHORTWAVE EXTENDS FROM LOW CENTER
OVER NORTHWESTERN CANADA...ACROSS YUKON ALASKA BORDER...THROUGH GULF
OF ALASKA. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED VICINITY OF YAKUTAT. NORTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED OVER WESTERN
ALASKA...THE INTERIOR...AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA. POLAR JET DISPLACED
TO SOUTH SIDE OF NORTH PACIFIC LOW. NEXT IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF NORTH PACIFIC LOW...CAUGHT UP IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY JET THAT SHOULD CARRY IT TOWARD THE NORTHERN END OF THE
ALASKA PANHANDLE.

BOTH THE MESOETA AND THE GFS CORRECTLY INITIALIZED MAIN FEATURES
NOTED ABOVE. GFS IS ABOUT 4 MBS DEEPER ON THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW BUT
ONLY 1 MB DIFFERENT ON CENTRAL PRESSURE OF GULF OF ALASKA LOW. MODELS
DIVERGE SHORTLY INTO THE RUN. THEY BOTH DEEPEN THE NEW LOW ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE OLDER STATIONARY LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. MESOETA
DOES ALOT MORE WITH THIS THAN THE GFS...MOVING LOW TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST MUCH MORE SLOWLY AND DEEPENING IT BY AN ADDITIONAL 5 MBS.
THE UKMET SOLUTION MUCH MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE GFS. GIVEN THE 2
TO 1 MAJORITY...AND THE FACT THAT THE ALLEGED BOMB DEVELOPS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY OF THE MESOETA DOMAIN...WE FAVOR THE GFS OVER THE MESETA
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THIS IS MOOT TO THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS....AND INDEED WILL ONLY BE OF MAJOR IMPORTANCE TO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE STATE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...135.
MARINE...GALES...2B1 2C4 3A 3B 3C 4.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...2B1 SC4 4 6A 8 14.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

STM JAN 05