Gale Warning 119, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 291259
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST SAT JAN 29 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-300300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEATHER FRONT FROM A 961 MB LOW 500 NM SOUTHWEST OF COLD BAY WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA SATURDAY MORNING FROM THE SOUTH. A 985
MB LOW WILL ENTER THE SOUTHERN GULF SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVE TO NEAR
YAKUTAT AT 975 MB MONDAY MORNING.

$$

PKZ120-300300-
AREA 2B. CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST SAT JAN 29 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-300300-
AREA 2B1. RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST SAT JAN 29 2005

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-300300-
AREA 2C. PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST SAT JAN 29 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT FROM BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 3
FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-300300-
AREA 2C4. PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST SAT JAN 29 2005

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-300300-
AREA 3A. BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST SAT JAN 29 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-300300-
AREA 3B. SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST SAT JAN 29 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-300300-
AREA 3C. SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST SAT JAN 29 2005

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT
BUILDING TO 18 FT THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-300300-
AREA 4. COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST SAT JAN 29 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.


$$

PKZ141-300300-
AREA 4A. KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST SAT JAN 29 2005

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1200 PM AST FRI JAN 28 2005

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS INITIALIZED POSITION OF STRONG PACIFIC LOW AT 500NM SOUTH OF
DUTCH HARBOR.  GFS HAS BEST CENTER PRESSURE AT 955 MB WHICH IS
CLOSEST TO THE 12Z NCEP SURFACE ANALYSIS OF 957 MB.  WAVE MODEL IS
GIVING 40 FOOT PLUS SEA HEIGHTS SOUTH OF LOW WITH GALE WINDS BEING
REPORTED THIS MORNING BY NEARBY SHIPS.  HOWEVER HIGHEST SEAS FROM
THIS LOW..AND A SPIN-OFF SECONDARY LOW..IS FORECASTED TO STAY OUT OF
THE ANCHORAGE AOR.

UPPER FEATURES MATCH UP WELL ON MODELS WITH HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING
OVER EASTERN RUSSIA AND MAIN UPPER LOWS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC AND OVER
NORTHERN CANADA.  GFS AND ETA HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 60HRS
WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN RUSSIA AND UPPER LOW
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN CANADA.  AS WE GO THROUGH 60HRS TWO
UPPER LOWS BECOME PROMINENT IN THE NORTH PACIFIC..ONE SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND ANOTHER SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.  THE LOW
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA IS SUPPORTED BY A SHIFT IN THE JET STREAM
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH TAKES IT OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AT 72HRS.

ONE THING OF CONCERN WITH MODELS IS THE POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE
SPIN-OFF LOW JUST WEST OF THE PANHANDLE.  GFS MISSES IT WHILE THE ETA
HINTS AT IT IN THE PRECIPITATION AND MSL PRESSURE FIELDS.  BOTH GFS
AND ETA BACK PRECIPITATION OFF FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUN AND DOESNT
BRING IT IN ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND UNTIL TONIGHT AND THE KENAI
PENINSULA UNTIL SATURDAY.  SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY CURRENTLY
SUPPORTS THIS AS ARCTIC FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
AND THE KENAI PENINSULA WHICH WILL KEEP THIS LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF
THROUGH THIS EVENING. NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...3AC 5B 6AB 12A.  HVY RRZ SPRAY...6A 8 14.

JWP JAN 05