Gale Warning 1093, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 280000
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST TUE DEC 27 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-281500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

$$

PKZ150-281500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AST TUE DEC 27 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-281500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AST TUE DEC 27 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-281500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AST TUE DEC 27 2005

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-281500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST TUE DEC 27 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-281500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AST TUE DEC 27 2005

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 20 KT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 KT.

$$

PKZ170-281500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AST TUE DEC 27 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-281500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AST TUE DEC 27 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-281500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AST TUE DEC 27 2005

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS INCREASING TO E 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-281500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AST TUE DEC 27 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-281500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST TUE DEC 27 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-281500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST TUE DEC 27 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW. AREAS
OF FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
SNOW. AREAS OF FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-281500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST TUE DEC 27 2005

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST MON DEC 26 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS -  ONE PERSISTANT FEATURE FOR THE LAST MONTH (MONTHS?) HAS
BEEN AN INCREDIBLE JET STREAM FROM SOUTHERN ASIA ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC. THE 250 MB JET TODAY IS OVER 200 KT FROM THE BAY OF BENGAL
TO JUST OF KSFO. THIS JET IS AIDING THE PERSISTENCE OF THE MAJOR
UPPER LOW CENTER JUST S OF DUTCH HARBOR AND SUPPORTS A SURFACE LOW
COMPLEX OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS JUST S OF OUR GIGANTIC FORECAST AREA.
AT 12Z THE DEEPEST SURFACE LOW WAS 952 MB NEAR 48N 153W. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN QUITE UNCERTAIN ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS LOW. THE
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MAINLAND IS SOUTHEASTERLY WITH MOISTURE AS PER
THE RADARS AND SATELLITE.

AER FORECASTS - EXPECT PERSISTENCE. LOOK FOR CONTINUED PRECIP ALONG
THE WINDWARD SLOPES WITH STRONG EASTERLIES IN THE NORTHERN GULF. WE
ALSO EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE EVEN WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...BECAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CHANGES
VERY LITTLE WITH TIME. SO WHAT IF THE MAJOR UPPER AND SURFACE LOW
ALOFT MOVES INTO POSITION OVER THE N PACIFIC BUT SOUTH OF 55N ON TUE?
THE MAJOR JUST REDEVELOPS S OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FOR A REPLAY OF
THE SAME PATTERN.

ALU FORECASTS - REST ASSURED THAT THERE IS ALWAYS ANOTHER LOW TO
REPLACE THAT LAST ALEUTIAN LOW. THE MODELS REMAIN CERTAIN THAT A LOW
OFF THE KURILES WILL DEEPEN TO 958 MB NEAR 45N 170E BY 06Z WED. UNTIL
THEN A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BERING SEA STARTING EARLY
TUE. THE RIDGE WILL FINALLY WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WED AS
FRONTS AND TRIPLE POINTS MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...SNOW ADVISORY 145.
MARINE...GALES 120 130 132 150 155 172 175 176 185.
         HVY FRZ SPRAY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JC DEC 05