Gale Warning 1061, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST WED DEC 14 2005

.DISCUSSION...

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE THE WESTERN BERING WITH AN ENORMOUS
RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TODAY. A SMALLER SCALE CUT-OFF LOW IS
NEAR THE AKPEN. AT THE SURFACE A LOW IS APPROACHING THE AKPEN WITH
ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. A LARGE LOW IS
OVER THE WESTERN BERING WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE NORTHERN BERING. ANOTHER LOW IS LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF THE
AKPEN.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR A DAY OR SO BEFORE TAKING THE LOW WELL
SOUTH OF THE AKPEN NORTH. WENT WITH THE GFS WHICH SLOWS THE NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW UNTIL IT FINALLY REACHES THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
KODIAK ISLAND FRI AFTERNOON.

EAST OF THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES...
THE INITIAL AKPEN LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO
THE NORTH GULF COAST AND TURNAGAIN ARM THROUGH TONIGHT. ABUNDANT
PRECIPITATION  WILL PERSIST OVER THE COAST AND NORTH TO THE CHUGACH
MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL FALL AS RAIN ALONG THE COAST WITH SNOW INLAND. A
BREAK WILL OCCUR EARLY THU AND THEN THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES KODIAK
ISLAND. ONCE AGAIN...WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF AND
TURNAGAIN ARM BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST WINDS THU NIGHT.
BY THIS TIME STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON SOUTH FLOW WILL ASSURE ALL
PRECIP TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS INCLUDES ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AS FAR NORTH AS THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE ALASKA RANGE. HOWEVER...MOST PRECIP WILL FALL WELL
SOUTH OF THOSE LOCATIONS ON UPSLOPE SIDES OF MOUNTAINS.

WEST OF THE ALEUTIAN RANGE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE WILL DOWNSLOPE MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA...ALTHOUGH A
VORTICITY MAXIMUM CROSSING BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE... THE BERING BETWEEN THE TWO
LOWS IS UNDER A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...SO SHOWERY ACTIVITY
SHOULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG EAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN BERING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WHILE WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING AND
ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185
         STORMS 130
         GALES 120 132 138 140 150 160 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS DEC 05