Gale Warning 1043, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 100642 AAA
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
930 PM AST FRI DEC 9 2005

UPDATED ZONE 120, 125 AND 130.

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-101500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 980 MB LOW 75 NM WEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE INLAND IN
NORTHERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND DISSIPATE BY SAT MORNING. A 1004 MB
LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR KODIAK CITY SAT AFTERNOON AND MOVE NEAR
WHITTIER AT 1012 MB SUN AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-101500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
930 PM AST FRI DEC 9 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-101500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST FRI DEC 9 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS
AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-101500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
930 PM AST FRI DEC 9 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-101500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST FRI DEC 9 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS
AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS
AND SNOW SHOWERS.  
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-101500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
930 PM AST FRI DEC 9 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-101500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST FRI DEC 9 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-101500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST FRI DEC 9 2005

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-101500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST FRI DEC 9 2005

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-101500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST FRI DEC 9 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AST FRI DEC 9 2005

.DISCUSSION...THE WEATHER FEATURE THAT HAS BROUGHT A LOT OF ACTION TO
THE STATE THE LAST FEW DAYS IS NOW A 975 MB LOW NEAR THE SEWARD
PENINSULA THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD. COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE BACK INTO SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AROUND THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THIS LOW. THE COLD AIR WILL THEN CROSS THE ALASKA RANGE
BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE BIG WEATHER FEATURE TODAY HAS TO DO WITH A 980 MB LOW IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA THAT WILL MOVE INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE SUPPORTING JET
STREAM STARTS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND IS HEADING INTO THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE. THE MAJORITY OF THE WARM AIR AND ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL GO THERE...BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA AS WELL.
THE LOW CENTER HAS ENTRAINED SOME WARM AIR INTO IT AND THE GENERAL
ENVIRONMENT OF SOUTHERN ALASKA IS WARM. AS A RESULT THE PRECIPITATION
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE RAIN. TEMPERATURES THAT
REACHED INTO THE 40S...AND EVEN LOWER 50S...IN THE DOWNSLOPE CHINOOK
WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY THROUGH THIS MORNING HAVE DROPPED BACK INTO
THE 30S OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THOUGH 850 MB TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ARE ONLY BETWEEN -2 AND -4 C...WHICH
NORMALLY INDICATE RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX...THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT SNOWFALL MIGHT BECOME THE RULE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THOUGH THE
EARLY PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN...IT WILL BE SNOW WHEN IT INITIALLY
LEAVES THE CLOUD. THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF THIS CHANGE OF STATE AS
WELL AS THE ENTRAINMENT OF COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL HELP TO COOL THE AIR
COLUMN AND TURN PRECIPITATION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. THIS IS LIKELY TO
HAPPEN IN ANY PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE AND IN THE
SUSITNA VALLEY. THE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THE LONGER BEFORE
THE SWITCH OCCURS.
THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME FROM THE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY IN THE GULF AND THEN FROM A NEW LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP NEAR
KODIAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS NEW LOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK BUT
WILL MOVE UP COOK INLET SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN DRIFT INTO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND SUNDAY. THOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE HAS TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY
AND HAVE HAVE LIFT...THIS WEEKEND COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN
AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA SHOULD ALL THIS OCCUR.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SEE CURRENT FORECASTS.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

EZ DEC 05