Wind Advisory 1, NWS Aberdeen, SD

000 
WWUS73 KABR 310841
NPWABR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
341 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2005

...WINDS SUBSIDING ACROSS THE REGION...

.A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE STATE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO TURN WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST.

SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051-310945-
/X.CAN.KABR.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-050831T0900Z/
CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-
STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-LYMAN-BUFFALO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MCLAUGHLIN...HERREID...EUREKA...
MOBRIDGE...IPSWICH...TIMBER LAKE...GETTYSBURG...FAULKTON...
FORT PIERRE...ONIDA...PIERRE...HIGHMORE...MILLER...MURDO...
PRESHO...FORT THOMPSON
341 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2005 /241 AM MDT WED AUG 31 2005/

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

THE RATE AT WHICH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE HAS
DECREASED SOME THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN A NOTABLE DROP IN WIND
SPEEDS TO BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS JUST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CAN STILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE.

$$

DORN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1230 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2005

.UPDATE...RATHER STRONG 3-HOURLY ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT TO POST
FRONTAL PRESSURE FIELD NOTED THIS EARLY MORNING NOSING INTO FAR
WESTERN CWA. AS SUCH...POST COLD FROPA NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BLOWN
THROUGH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
NEXT 4 HOURS AND WILL RE-ASSES NEED TO PROLONG/EXTEND ADVISORY INTO
MORNING PACKAGE ISSUANCE. INCREASED WIND AND GUST GRIDS. ALSO HAVE A
LINE OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING/MOVING INTO JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AT THIS TIME. UPDATED WORDS GRIDS OUT.   DORN

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
BIGGEST CHALLENGE STILL REMAINS PCPN CHCS FOR TONIGHT...AND TEMPS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROF FROM 24 HOURS
AGO...AND ARE BEGINNING TO FOCUS BETTER FORCING FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH. CURRENTLY KBLX 88D SHOWING BAND OF SHRA/ISO TSRA GLIDING EAST
ACROSS SRN MT. AS 5H AND 7H TROFS PUSH INTO WRN SODAK LATER THIS
EVENING...EXPECT THIS PCPN SHIELD TO ALSO ADVECT INTO SODAK. MODELS
SHOW SFC TROF SLOWING SLIGHTLY AWAITING UPPER TROFS. DECENT 7H AND
85H THETA-E FORCING NOTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS CWA...WITH GOOD
REFLECTION IN OMEGA FIELD. 30/12Z MM5 DBZ FCST SHOWS LINE OF
SHRA/TSRA MOVING EAST ACROSS CWA MAINLY 06Z-15Z WEDNESDAY AND THIS
LINES UP WELL WITH SLOWER SOLN SHOWN BY MODELS. PWATS STILL INCREASE
TO 1.5+ ALONG I-29 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT AND DWPTS HAVE RISEN INTO
LOW-MID 60S ACROSS ERN SODAK. 85H 30KT JET SHOULD ALSO AID IN TSRA
PRODUCTION. HAVE RE-TWEAKED TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CHC POPS ACROSS
THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR ALL THE ABOVE.

REMAINDER OF NEAR TERM SHOULD BE QUIET AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RECOVER
HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. BREEZY CONDS WILL PERSIST FOR WED
AND PART OF THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. STILL
APPEARS TO BE COOL ON WED WITH CAA OVERRUNNING THE CWA...AND STILL
LOOKS LIKE SOME CAA SC MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ERN  PART OF CWA.
MODERATING TEMP TRENDS STILL LOOK GOOD FOR REST OF NEAR TERM.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
EXTENDED RANGE SHAPING UP SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
LITTLE CHANGES NOTED IN THE NEW MODEL RUNS. THEREFORE MADE MINIMAL
CHANGES TO THE GRIDS. FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OFF DRY SATURDAY WITH
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE
STILL ON TRACK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THEREFORE FIRST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED COMES MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH/SURFACE LOW PUSHING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. SYSTEM LOOKS TO PUSH
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING
FROM THE 20S CELSIUS TO AROUND +10C. TEMPERATURE GRIDS LOOK GOOD
WITH WARMING EXPECTED BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...AND THEN THE COOLDOWN IN STORE FOR TUESDAY.

&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

HINTZ/ALBRECHT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
531 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-311045-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
531 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 /431 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY AFTER 7 PM CDT...AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DORN