Severe Thunderstorm Warning 183, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
345 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LARGE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. MODEL
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER...SHOWING THIS DEEP UPPER TROUGH
SHOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. MODELS
TRENDING TOWARD A WEAKER SOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY...SO HAVE
DECREASED POPS SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE CWA. STILL LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
SYSTEM...WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY SHOWING
UP ON RADAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. EXPECT AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS MORNING AS THE
FRONT SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. GFS SHOWING THE SYSTEM EXITING
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS...ALONG WITH THE BETTER LIFT
KEEPING JUST TO THE NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THEREFORE HAVE DECREASED SOME OF THE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
THIS MORNING AND NEAR KATY WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE -TRW KEEPING TO
THE NORTH OF THAT AREA. ANTICIPATE MOST OF THE PRECIP HAVING MOVED
OFF TO THE EAST BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THEREFORE LEFT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH AN AREA OF WEAK UVM
SHOWING UP WITH THIS WAVE. NAM AND GFS MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN THE
TEMPERATURES FIELDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NAM LOOKING SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND NAM...WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS BY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. LATEST GFS NOW
SHOWING A WARMER SOLUTION WITH H85 TEMPS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID
TEENS. KEPT TEMPERATURES GRIDS BASICALLY WHERE THEY WERE AT WITH THE
COOLER NAM SOLUTION...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBILITY OF THE WARMER
GFS SOLUTION. OTHERWISE A LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND A WARMING
TREND SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EXTENDED RANGE OPENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST AS AN H5 UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES AND PUSHES A SURFACE REFLECTION OUT
ONTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES BUT SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE GOING FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.  WITH LATER RUNS AND BETTER AGREEMENT EXPECT THE TIME OF THE
STORMS CAN BE RESOLVED BETTER THAN NOW.

&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

ALBRECHT/KEEFE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
531 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005

SDZ003>006-009-010-015>018-033>037-045-048-051-201045-
CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DEWEY-POTTER-
FAULK-SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-LYMAN-BUFFALO-
531 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 /431 AM MDT FRI AUG 19 2005/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
DAY AND TONIGHT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRAVELING THROUGH
THE AREA. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MNZ039-046-SDZ007-008-011-019>023-201045-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-DAY-CLARK-CODINGTON-GRANT-
HAMLIN-DEUEL-
531 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE THIS MORNING. DAMAGING
WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT BUT SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE TOO. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO EARLY THIS MORNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY.