Severe Thunderstorm Warning 167, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
2 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2005

.SHORT TERM...TONITE THROUGH SATURDAY NITE
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT RANGE CENTER AROUND THIS EVENING.  PER
LAPS DATA SURFACE FRONT HAS PUSHED ENTIRELY THROUGH CWA.  HOWEVER
POST FRONTAL MOISTURE AND DIABATIC HEATING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE
LOWER MO AND JAMES VALLEY.  MEANWHILE DRY AIR IS PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHWEST CWA AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT PCPN OVER THIS AREA.  BOTH
NAM/GFS POINT TOWARD SOUTHEAST/SC SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE HOT SPOTS THIS
EVENING...AND THAT SEEMS ABOUT RIGHT BASED ON LAPS DATA.  ALSO LOOKS
LIKE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 3H JET WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING HELPING TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY.  MOST OF THE PCPN
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE ABR CWA BY MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO
THE REGION. REALLY NOT TOO MANY ISSUES FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT
RANGE.  ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN CWA ON
SATURDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP GRIDS DRY SINCE MID LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE BEGINS REASSERTING ITSELF AND PROBABLY WILL CAP OFF MOST
ACTIVITY.  AS FOR TEMPS...LOOKS PLEASANT FOR NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS AIR
OF CANADIAN ORIGIN MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EXTENDED TERM LOOKING SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE MOST
PART...WITH THE PERIOD BEGINNING WITH AN UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US. THIS ALLOWS FOR HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOOKS AS IF UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENS OUT AS A WEAK WAVE TRAVELS THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS
WILL SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF IN SOMEWHAT AGREEMENT. SOME DISCONTINUITY FROM
RUN TO RUN IN THE GFS...WITH THE COLD FRONT PREVIOUSLY PROGGED TO
COME THROUGH MONDAY. OPTED TO REMOVE POPS FOR MONDAY WITH THE
SOLUTION LOOKING SLOWER...BUT WAS HESITANT TO PUT IN MENTION FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE NEW POSITION OF THE FRONT. WITH THE AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY...DECIDED TO JUST LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE LATEST GFS SOLUTION SHOWING WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED...SO UPPED TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA. H85 TEMPS RANGING IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30C
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS PANS OUT THE CURRENT FORECAST OF
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S MAY BE STILL BE TOO COOL.

&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

TDK/ALBRECHT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
541 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2005

SDZ003>005-009-015-041039-
CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-MCPHERSON-WALWORTH-
541 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING ACROSS THIS
AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MNZ039-046-SDZ006>008-010-011-016>023-033>037-045-048-051-041039-
BIG STONE-BROWN-BUFFALO-CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-EDMUNDS-FAULK-
GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-MARSHALL-POTTER-ROBERTS-
SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY-TRAVERSE-
541 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS BIG STONE AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES IN
MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA FROM THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WHEATON
MINNESOTA TO ABERDEEN SOUTH DAKOTA TO PIERRE SOUTH DAKOTA. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED BY 3 PM CDT.

DORN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
158 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 AM     HAIL             5 NE LEOLA              45.77N 98.86W
08/03/2005  1.00 INCH        MCPHERSON          SD   PUBLIC

0200 AM     HAIL             5 E BRISTOL             45.35N 97.65W
08/03/2005  0.75 INCH        DAY                SD   PUBLIC

0226 AM     TSTM WND GST     LANGFORD                45.60N 97.83W
08/03/2005  60 MPH           MARSHALL           SD   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES - POWER OUT

0304 AM     TSTM WND GST     BROWNS VALLEY           45.59N 96.83W
08/03/2005  60 MPH           TRAVERSE           MN   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN ON HWY 27

&&

GM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
320 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2005

SDZ006>008-010-011-016>023-033>037-045-048-051-040130-
BROWN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-EDMUNDS-DAY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABERDEEN...BRITTON...SISSETON...
IPSWICH...WEBSTER...GETTYSBURG...FAULKTON...REDFIELD...CLARK...
WATERTOWN...MILBANK...CASTLEWOOD...CLEAR LAKE...FORT PIERRE...
ONIDA...PIERRE...HIGHMORE...MILLER...MURDO...PRESHO...
FORT THOMPSON
320 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2005 /220 PM MDT WED AUG 3 2005/

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 699 IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM CDT...

THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES ARE INCLUDED IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
699.
STANLEY...JONES...BUFFALO...LYMAN...HUGHES...SULLY...HYDE...HAND...POTTER...
FAULK...EDMUNDS...BROWN...SPINK...MARSHALL...CLARK...CODINGTON...DAY
...DEUEL...HAMLIN...GRANT AND ROBERTS.

SEVERE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE
COUNTIES THROUGH 10 PM CDT.

TDK