Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
230 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2005

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND SUNDAY. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING
GOOD CU FIELD STRETCHING UP INTO CENTRAL SD...WITH SOME ISOLATED
STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER. SPC ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR INCLUDING CENTRAL SD...WITH
ANTICIPATION OF STORMS DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT
STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE
IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NW SD...WITH A COLD FRONT/DRY LINE
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. RUC ANALYSIS AND
SPC MESO PAGE INDICATING MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG ACROSS
CENTRAL SD WITH LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. SHEAR LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH META HODOGRAPHS INDICATING GOOD
VEERING THROUGHOUT THE LOWER 3KM OF THE ATMOSPHERE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
NOT LOOKING QUITE AS GOOD WITH BACKING TAKING PLACE IN THE 3-6KM
LAYER...HOWEVER SPEED SHEAR LOOKING OK THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE 0-6KM
LAYER. EXPECTATION IS FOR ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING WITH IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH POTENTIAL OF DEVELOPING INTO A LINE OF STORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE LOOKING GOOD THROUGHOUT
ENTIRE CWA WITH NEARLY 1.00 INCH OR HIGHER PWAT VALUES...AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HOVERING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE CWA.
SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUDINESS THAN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CWA...BUT SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BIT MORE SUNSHINE PEAKING
THROUGH IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS LOWER CLOUD DECK SLIDES OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EXTENDS INTO SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST. EXPECT
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE OVER THE CWA LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS TAKING OVER. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM PUSHING OUT OF
THE ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MDLS ALL AGREE THERE WILL BE A BIG UPPER LOW/TROUGH TO THE WEST OF
THE ABR CWA TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED. THE PROBLEM COMES WITH AGREEMENT
ON THE EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT OF THIS UPPER LOW/TROUGH THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. LIKE THE DGEX WANTS TO SHEAR PART OF IT OFF EARLY ON AND
MOVE IT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE THE REST OF THE UPPER ENERGY
DIGS SOUTH AND THEN LIFTS BACK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD. NEVERTHELESS...OUR CWA WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A DECENT CHC OF
TSRAS WED-THU NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE UPPER LOW EVOLVES IN
LATER RUNS.

&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH 7 PM CDT.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FOR BIG STONE AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES THROUGH 7
     PM CDT.
&&

ALBRECHT/MOHR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
527 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2005

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-081027-
BIG STONE-BROWN-BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CLARK-CODINGTON-CORSON-DAY-DEUEL-
DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-
MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-POTTER-ROBERTS-SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY-TRAVERSE-
WALWORTH-
527 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS BIG STONE
AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES IN MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY AFTER THE MORNING ACTIVITY
DECREASES. MOST OF THE STORMS THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES AS WELL. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE LOW WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS BECOMING MORE DOMINANT OVERNIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING.

KNUTSVIG

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