Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2005

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW TRACKING NORTH OF FOUR CORNERS REGION ATTM.
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO NORTHWEST QUARTER ALOFT...AND DEWPOINTS HAVE
COME DOWN OVER THAT AREA AS WELL. EXCEPT AT GALLUP WHERE WIND HAS
DECREASED LAST HOUR...WIND HAS NOT EXCEEDED THE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA...THEREFORE WARNING WILL BE CANCELLED.

HOWEVER...40S DEWPOINTS STILL ENTRENCHED FROM CATRON COUNTY
SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD. CELL MOVING OVER METRO AREA THIS AFTERNOON
PRODUCED A BRIEF ROUND OF PEA HAIL AND 0.40 IN RAIN ON ABQ WEST
SIDE. PULLED THE ISOLD AREA OF POPS BACK WESTWARD TO THE CONTDVD FOR
THIS EVENING...THOUGH MAY BE MOSTLY OVER WITH FROM RIO GRANDE VALLEY
WESTWARD BY EARLY EVENING.  IN THE EAST...LAPS CAPE VALUES CONTINUE
TO CLIMB OVER 2000 J/KG WITH AXIS STRETCHING ACROSS SAN
MIGUEL...QUAY...HARDING AND UNION COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH STATE AND EXITS TO EAST
MIDDAY TUESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A WEAK BOUNDARY IS STILL ON TAP TO DROP
INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TUESDAY...BUT DON/T EXPECT MUCH
COOLING...MAIN AFFECT MAY BE TO ENHANCE MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE.

WEDNESDAY MAY BE THE MOST QUIET DAY OF THE WEEK WEATHER WISE...AS A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS. MOISTURE SEEN ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY AHEAD OF UPPER LOW OFF BAJA MAY REMAIN SUPPRESSED
UNTIL MIDWEEK BY STRONGER WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE NORTHWEST U.S. BOTH NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD
SLUG OF AT LEAST HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CROSSING MUCH OF THE STATE
POSSIBLY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AS THE BAJA LOW
WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO TRACK EAST NORTHEASTWARD. IN ANY
EVENT...EXPECT AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EASTWARD PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A TROUGH
EXTENDS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND ARIZONA...LIKELY PRODUCING SOME
AFTERNOON BREEZY TO WINDINESS AND DRYLINE THUNDERSTORMS IN NEW
MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  48  81  47  87 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  41  77  39  84 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  45  78  41  84 /  10   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  48  84  46  90 /  10   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  34  68  33  75 /  20  10  10  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  44  75  42  80 /  20  10  10  10
RED RIVER.......................  35  63  31  69 /  30  30  20  20
TAOS............................  41  74  37  79 /  20  10  10  10
SANTA FE........................  45  75  43  80 /  20  10  10  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  48  77  45  82 /  20  10  10  10
ESPANOLA........................  47  80  43  85 /  20  10  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  56  81  56  87 /  10   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  51  83  50  88 /  10   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  53  80  53  85 /  10   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  55  83  55  88 /  10   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  52  85  53  90 /  10   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  48  73  49  79 /  10  10  10  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  46  76  49  83 /  20  10  10  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  54  82  54  87 /  10   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  51  76  52  79 /  20  10   0  10
RATON...........................  44  73  42  78 /  50  30  30  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  45  75  43  80 /  40  30  30  20
ROY.............................  49  74  49  79 /  50  30  30  20
CLAYTON.........................  51  72  50  80 /  60  30  40  20
SANTA ROSA......................  53  83  52  86 /  40  20  20  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  56  82  55  89 /  50  30  30  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  57  82  55  89 /  40  20  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  55  83  56  86 /  40  30  20  20
PORTALES........................  57  84  57  88 /  40  20  20  20
ROSWELL.........................  59  88  58  91 /  30  10  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT MON MAY 30 2005

NMZ001>021-026-311200-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-NORTHWEST PLATEAU-QUAY COUNTY-
ROOSEVELT COUNTY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
600 AM MDT MON MAY 30 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT...BUT DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS STORMS
SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE TODAY. HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAIN FELL OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST.

IN ADDITION...HIGH WATER FLOWS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE RIVERS AND
STREAMS OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN INCLUDES
THE CABRESTO CREEK AND RED RIVER...WHERE A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES.
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD ALLOW WATERWAYS TO RISE ONCE AGAIN.

FINALLY...A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE PREDICTED IN THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE STATE TODAY. LIGHTNING STRIKES...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LITTLE RAIN COULD SPARK WILDFIRES LATER TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST
PART OF NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.

HIGH WATER FLOWS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE RIVERS AND STREAMS OVER
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD ALLOW WATERWAYS
TO RISE ONCE AGAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
MANY AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. REPORT SEVERE
WEATHER OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

19

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
133 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2005

NMZ004>007-011>013-310300-
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS-HARDING COUNTY-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-QUAY
COUNTY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
133 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2005

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT MONDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 357
IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT MONDAY EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING AREAS

IN NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES

  COLFAX          HARDING         MORA            QUAY
  SAN MIGUEL      UNION

A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES... LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA. REMAIN ALERT AND CONTINUE TO LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION OUTLETS FOR LATEST
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FOR YOUR LOCATION.

23

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
234 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2005

NMZ003-009-010-302115-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-SANDIA/MANZANO
MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA...

AT 229 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...WINDS UP TO
50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER NEAR LOS RANCHOS DE
ALBUQUERQUE. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ALAMEDA...NORTH VALLEY...
PARADISE HILLS...SANDIA HEIGHTS AND SANDIA PUEBLO.

MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT BRIEF...BUT SUDDEN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY AND
PONDING OF WATER ON THE HIGHWAYS AS THIS STORM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

23

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
254 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2005

NMZ005-302145-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT MONDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER NORTHERN SAN MIGUEL AND SOUTHERN
MORA COUNTIES...

AT 248 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...WINDS UP TO
50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WATROUS. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE SHOEMAKER...WATROUS AND
VALMORA.

MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT BRIEF...BUT SUDDEN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY AND
PONDING OF WATER ON THE HIGHWAYS AS THIS STORM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

23

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
324 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2005

NMZ003-004-302200-
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...

AT 321 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...WINDS UP TO
50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER NEAR EMBUDO.
MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE DIXON...PILAR...RINCONADA
AND VELARDE.

MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT BRIEF...BUT SUDDEN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY AND
PONDING OF WATER ON THE HIGHWAYS AS THIS STORM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

23