Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MDT SAT AUG 27 2005

.DISCUSSION...GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY INDICATES DRYING CONTINUES TO
SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO GILA AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
DESPITE THIS AND DECREASING DEWPOINTS OVER LAST 24
HRS...THUNDERSTORMS MANAGED TO FIRE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
BEFORE NOON...UNLIKE ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR
LAST NIGHTS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO HAS
EXITED...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS
WELL AS OBSERVED DATA...AND PICKED UP BY MORNING MODEL RUNS. TIMING
OF THIS WAVE RESULTING IN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST.

DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING...RUC DEPICTS AREA OF LOWERING PRESSURE/SURFACE TROUGHING
DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. MSAS PRESSURE
CHANGE PLOT SHOWING THIS TREND...AND FEEL A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW
MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

THEREFORE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS BREAK OUT EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR OVER THE
NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE FOCUS OF MORE FAVORABLE
INSTABILITY/MOISTURE SHIFTING INTO THE EAST CENTRAL DURING THE
EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE DIGS FARTHER SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE STATE
PER FORECAST MODELS. ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST INTO LATE NIGHT
HOURS...WHICH IS WELL COVERED IN CURRENT GRIDS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS WELL...MORE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST AND
UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTH TO NORTHEAST BY EARLY MONDAY. MONDAY STILL
APPEARS TO BE A DOWN DAY...WITH THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD...WED/THURS...BECOMING MORE ACTIVE AGAIN AS UPPER FLOW SHIFTS
TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST AND ANOTHER BOUNDARY SLIDES INTO THE PLAINS.
THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO RETURN LATE
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE UPPER HIGH CENTER FORECASTED OVER
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  53  89  54  91 /  10   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  46  85  45  87 /   0  10   0   0
GRANTS..........................  48  86  46  87 /  10  10  10   0
GLENWOOD........................  53  91  53  92 /  10  20  10  10
CHAMA...........................  41  77  41  80 /  10  20  10   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  50  82  49  83 /  10  10  10   0
RED RIVER.......................  37  72  36  73 /  20  30  20  10
TAOS............................  45  79  43  83 /  10  20  20   0
SANTA FE........................  52  82  51  84 /  10  30  20   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  55  83  54  86 /  10  20  20   0
ESPANOLA........................  53  85  50  87 /  10  10  20   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  64  86  64  87 /  10  10  20   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  57  88  58  89 /  10  10  20   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  62  83  61  85 /  10  10  20   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  64  88  64  88 /  10  10  20   0
SOCORRO.........................  61  90  60  90 /  10  10  20   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  54  80  54  83 /  20  30  20  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  52  82  49  84 /  20  40  20  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  59  87  59  88 /  20  10  20   0
RUIDOSO.........................  52  78  52  78 /  30  40  30  20
RATON...........................  49  80  46  85 /  40  40  20   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  51  78  49  83 /  30  40  30  10
ROY.............................  55  79  54  83 /  40  40  20   0
CLAYTON.........................  59  80  58  87 /  40  30  20   0
SANTA ROSA......................  60  85  58  87 /  40  30  40  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  63  85  61  90 /  50  30  30   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  63  85  59  86 /  40  30  40  10
CLOVIS..........................  65  84  60  87 /  50  40  40  10
PORTALES........................  65  86  61  88 /  50  40  40  10
ROSWELL.........................  68  91  65  91 /  40  30  40  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT SAT AUG 27 2005

NMZ001>021-026-281200-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-NORTHWEST PLATEAU-QUAY COUNTY-
ROOSEVELT COUNTY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
600 AM MDT SAT AUG 27 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.
HAILSTONES UP TO THE SIZE OF A QUARTER AND WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND
60 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY OF
THE SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. WEATHER CAN CHANGE RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST
FORECASTS...WARNINGS...WATCHES AND ADVISORIES FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NWS OFFICE IN
ALBUQUERQUE.  CONTACT OUR OFFICE TOLL FREE AT 1-888-386-7637 OR
VISIT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABQ AND CLICK ON SUBMIT STORM REPORTS.

KJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
258 PM MDT SAT AUG 27 2005

NMZ005-272200-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER SOUTHERN COLFAX COUNTY...

AT 255 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...WINDS UP
TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER 10 MILES WEST OF
SPRINGER. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE MIAMI AND INTERSTATE 25
BETWEEN WAGON MOUND AND SPRINGER.

MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT BRIEF...BUT SUDDEN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY AND
PONDING OF WATER ON THE HIGHWAYS AS THIS STORM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

23

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
313 PM MDT SAT AUG 27 2005

NMZ005-007-272215-
FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER NORTHWESTERN UNION COUNTY...

AT 306 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...WINDS UP
TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER NEAR FOLSOM.
MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE RURAL NORTHWESTERN UNION
COUNTY.

MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT BRIEF...BUT SUDDEN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY AND
PONDING OF WATER ON THE HIGHWAYS AS THIS STORM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

23

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
350 PM MDT SAT AUG 27 2005

NMZ005-012-272245-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING SOUTH CENTRAL SAN MIGUEL COUNTY...

AT 342 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...WINDS UP
TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER 9 MILES WEST OF
VARIADERO. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CONCHAS.

THIS STORM WAS NOT PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER
RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA SOURCES FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES OR WARNINGS.

23

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
413 PM MDT SAT AUG 27 2005

NMZ021-272315-
CURRY COUNTY-

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER EASTERN CURRY COUNTY...

AT 406 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...WINDS UP
TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER 9 MILES SOUTH OF
BELLVIEW. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE PLEASANT HILL.

MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT BRIEF...BUT SUDDEN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY AND
PONDING OF WATER ON THE HIGHWAYS AS THIS STORM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS STORM WAS NOT PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA SOURCES FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES OR
WARNINGS.

23

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
424 PM MDT SAT AUG 27 2005

NMZ017-272330-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY...

AT 418 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...WINDS UP
TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER NEAR BONITO LAKE.
MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ALTO...ANGUS...GLENCOE...
NOGAL AND RUIDOSO DOWNS.

MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT BRIEF...BUT SUDDEN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY AND
PONDING OF WATER ON THE HIGHWAYS AS THIS STORM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

23