Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
335 PM MDT SAT MAY 14 2005

.DISCUSSION...SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN NOW ALL THE WAY TO THE
DIVIDE...BUT IT IS RELATIVELY MEAGER W OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN SO
FAR AND ALSO PRETTY SHALLOW. DESPITE THAT AND THE VEIL OF HIGHER
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NW HALF...ROUGHLY...OF THE STATE...A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS W CENTRAL AND N CENTRAL NM.
FIGURED THE S CENTRAL MTNS REGION WOULD HAVE FIRED UP BY NOW...BUT
LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE TEMPS HAVING HARD TIME BEING REACHED. STILL
LOOK FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT NEAR TO JUST E OF SANDIAS ON
SOUTHWARD EARLY EVENING...BUT LOOKING LIKE MORE WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. DROPPED MOST LOW POPS SUN AND SUN
EVE W OF DIVIDE...AS COMBO OF MOISTURE BEING TOO LIMITED AND/OR
SHALLOW AND SHORT WAVE NOW IN AZ BEING PAST THAT AREA BEFORE PEAK
HEATING KEEPS PCPN CHANCES TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY PUTTING IN. E AREAS
SUN PM HAVE PRETTY DECENT CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SO HAVE
KEPT THOSE GRIDS PRETTY MUCH AS IS. LOW POPS W OF RIO GRANDE VALLEY
THEREAFTER MOSTLY TAKEN OUT AS MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LIMITED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  47  80  46  84 /   0  10   0   0
GALLUP..........................  39  77  36  81 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  42  75  40  81 /  10  10  10   0
GLENWOOD........................  43  84  42  89 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  36  66  34  73 /  10  20  10  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  47  70  45  78 /  30  40  10  10
RED RIVER.......................  35  57  33  66 /  30  40  20  10
TAOS............................  41  67  38  76 /  30  40  20   0
SANTA FE........................  46  70  44  78 /  30  40  20   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  48  73  46  81 /  30  40  20  10
ESPANOLA........................  47  75  45  83 /  30  40  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  56  78  55  84 /  30  30  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  54  79  53  85 /  30  30  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  53  76  52  82 /  30  40  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  54  78  53  84 /  30  30  10  10
SOCORRO.........................  53  80  52  88 /  30  30  20  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  48  70  46  77 /  30  40  20  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  45  70  46  79 /  30  50  20  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  50  72  51  81 /  30  40  30  10
RUIDOSO.........................  46  66  47  76 /  30  50  40  10
RATON...........................  43  67  41  80 /  50  40  20  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  44  66  43  77 /  40  50  20  10
ROY.............................  45  67  44  79 /  40  50  30  10
CLAYTON.........................  48  66  49  80 /  40  40  30  10
SANTA ROSA......................  49  71  49  82 /  40  50  30  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  54  71  53  84 /  40  50  40  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  54  72  54  84 /  40  50  40  10
CLOVIS..........................  53  70  52  83 /  40  50  50  10
PORTALES........................  55  71  54  83 /  40  50  50  10
ROSWELL.........................  57  76  58  86 /  40  50  50  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT SAT MAY 14 2005

NMZ001>021-026-151200-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-NORTHWEST PLATEAU-QUAY COUNTY-
ROOSEVELT COUNTY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
547 AM MDT SAT MAY 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS INCLUDING
CHAVES COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS MOISTURE INCREASE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE STATE WILL
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
ALSO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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