Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
153 PM MDT THU SEP 1 2005

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION FIRING EARLY AND OFTEN TODAY WITH A FEW
STRONG STORMS ALREADY. POTENTIAL FOR HAILERS AREAWIDE AND MAYBE
SOME STRONG WINDS OVER THE FAR W THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN THERE
MAY BE A TRANSITION TO HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS DURING THE NIGHT. THIS
BASED MAINLY ON THE GFS WHICH PICKS UP ON A DISTURBANCE HEADING N
INTO SW AND SC NM NOW. OTHER MODELS DO AS WELL...BUT WITH LESS
PRECIP. GFS PROBABLY OVERDONE WITH ITS 1 TO 2 INCH BULLSEYES BUT
AREA LOOKS REASONABLE FROM THE SW AND SC MOUNTAINS NE ALONG THE E
SLOPES OF CNTRL MOUNTAINS ONTO THE ERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE THINGS
ARE FIRING IN THE NE AS WELL...WITH LAST NIGHTS DISTURBANCE STILL
AFFECTING THIS AREA. BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE OUT OF THE NE BY
SUNSET.

ALL OF THIS IS HAPPENING DESPITE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
STATE. YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT HAS FRESHENED THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AREAWIDE AND THE COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES HAVE AIDED IN THE LIFT AND
INSTABILITY. MOISTURE TO BE RECYCLED FRI WITH MOST ACTIVE AREAS
BEING THE W AND CNTRL MOUNTAINS WHERE WE WILL CARRY SCATTERED POPS.

GENERAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION STILL FORECAST FOR THIS
WEEKEND AS UPPER HIGH REMAINS NEAR THE AREA. NAM HOLDS IN HIGH OVER
THE STATE AND EVEN SHIFTS IT A BIT N...WHILE GFS TAKES RIDGE AXIS
SE. GFS THUS MORE BULLISH ON PRECIP OVER THE W AND N THIS WEEKEND
WITH SOME MONSOON MOISTURE AND WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING NE IN THE SW
FLOW ALOFT. WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS FOR NOW OVER THE CWA WITH BEST
POPS FAVORING THE W AND N MOUNTAINS.

GFS EVENTUALLY BUILDS UPPER HIGH BACK OVER NM NEXT WEEK WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. APPEARS BACK DOOR FRONT LESS OF A CONCERN AS WELL. THUS
WILL KEEP JUST ISOLATED POPS FOR NEXT WEEK ALL AREAS. CHJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  57  88  57  85 /  10  10  10  20
GALLUP..........................  50  83  51  81 /  30  10  10  20
GRANTS..........................  51  82  52  81 /  40  20  20  10
GLENWOOD........................  59  88  58  87 /  20  20  20  20
CHAMA...........................  43  76  43  76 /  30  30  30  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  50  78  51  79 /  40  30  30  10
RED RIVER.......................  39  68  39  72 /  40  30  30  20
TAOS............................  46  79  49  80 /  40  30  20  20
SANTA FE........................  52  80  52  80 /  40  20  30  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  54  82  54  82 /  40  20  20  10
ESPANOLA........................  52  83  52  85 /  30  20  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  62  85  62  85 /  40  20  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  58  87  58  87 /  40  20  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  59  85  59  85 /  40  20  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  60  88  61  87 /  40  20  20  10
SOCORRO.........................  60  85  59  86 /  40  20  20  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  53  79  52  77 /  50  20  30  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  49  82  50  82 /  50  30  30  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  57  83  56  84 /  40  20  20  10
RUIDOSO.........................  51  75  51  78 /  50  30  20  10
RATON...........................  47  83  50  83 /  30  20  20  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  50  78  50  79 /  40  20  20  10
ROY.............................  55  81  55  82 /  30  20  20  10
CLAYTON.........................  57  84  57  87 /  30  10  20  10
SANTA ROSA......................  56  87  56  89 /  40  10  20  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  60  87  61  91 /  30  10  20  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  59  87  59  88 /  40  10  20  10
CLOVIS..........................  60  85  60  88 /  30  10  20  10
PORTALES........................  59  86  59  89 /  30  10  20  10
ROSWELL.........................  65  88  63  91 /  40  10  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

40

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT THU SEP 1 2005

NMZ001>021-026-021200-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-NORTHWEST PLATEAU-QUAY COUNTY-
ROOSEVELT COUNTY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
559 AM MDT THU SEP 1 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAST EVENING WILL COMBINE WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...EXPECTED TO CROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS HAVE A POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A
FEW STORMS PRODUCING HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER. ANY LOCATION
FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EAST TO THE TEXAS BORDER WILL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE FOR ONE OF THESE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WEATHER
CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

49

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
830 PM MDT THU SEP 1 2005

NMZ020-021-020230-
CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-

...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CURRY COUNTY
AND NORTHERN ROOSEVELT COUNTIES...

AT 830 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE
LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM
NEAR MELROSE NORTHEASTWARD TO RANCHVALE TO THE TEXAS STATE LINE NORTH
OF PLEASANT HILL. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS PUSHING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH YOUR LOCATION...EXPECT WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT 45 TO 55 MPH. THIS INCLUDES SOUTHERN CURRY AND NORTHERN
ROOSEVELT COUNTIES AND THE COMMUNITIES OF SAINT VRAIN...RANCHVALE...
CLOVIS...FLOYD AND PORTALES. THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD LAST 30 MINUTES
OR LESS BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL MOVE INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE OF THE GUSTY WINDS. THE LAG TIME BETWEEN
THE STRONGEST WINDS AND ONSET OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ABOUT ONE HALF HOUR.
ARROYOS WILL QUICKLY FILL AND STREET FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

KJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
830 PM MDT THU SEP 1 2005

NMZ020-021-020330-
CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-

...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CURRY COUNTY
AND NORTHERN ROOSEVELT COUNTIES...

AT 830 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE
LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM
NEAR MELROSE NORTHEASTWARD TO RANCHVALE TO THE TEXAS STATE LINE NORTH
OF PLEASANT HILL. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS PUSHING TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH YOUR LOCATION...EXPECT WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT 45 TO 55 MPH. THIS INCLUDES SOUTHERN CURRY AND NORTHERN
ROOSEVELT COUNTIES AND THE COMMUNITIES OF SAINT VRAIN...RANCHVALE...
CLOVIS...FLOYD AND PORTALES. THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD LAST 30 MINUTES
OR LESS BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL MOVE
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE OF THE GUSTY WINDS. THE LAG
TIME BETWEEN THE STRONGEST WINDS AND ONSET OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
ABOUT ONE HALF HOUR. ARROYOS WILL QUICKLY FILL AND STREET FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

KJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
831 PM MDT THU SEP 01 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     FLASH FLOOD      TUCUMCARI               35.17N 103.73W
09/01/2005                   QUAY               NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STREET FLOODING - UP TO 2 FEET IN SPOTS. SPOTTER RECORDED
            2.75 INCHES OF RAIN.

&&

MAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1005 PM MDT THU SEP 01 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0233 PM     HAIL             GOLDEN                  35.27N 106.21W
09/01/2005  0.88 INCH        SANTA FE           NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

0305 PM     HAIL             13 N EDGEWOOD           35.27N 106.18W
09/01/2005  1.00 INCH        SANTA FE           NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

0400 PM     HAIL             14 N LAS VEGAS          35.80N 105.22W
09/01/2005  1.75 INCH        SAN MIGUEL         NM   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            20 MINUTES OF GOLFBALL HAIL NEAR MILE MARKER 360 ON
            INTERSTATE 25. STILL HAILING AT 420 PM.

0445 PM     HAIL             CHAPELLE                35.39N 105.29W
09/01/2005  1.00 INCH        SAN MIGUEL         NM   PUBLIC

            HAIL BETWEEN DIME AND QUARTER SIZE ACCUMULATED TO A DEPTH
            OF 6 TO 8 INCHES.

0455 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CHAPELLE                35.39N 105.29W
09/01/2005                   SAN MIGUEL         NM   PUBLIC

            TRES HERMANOS CREEK REPORTED OUT OF ITS BANK WHERE IT
            FLOWS INTO TECOLOTE CREEK 17 MILES SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS.
            ROCKS AND DEBRIS COVERED PORTIONS OF COUNTY ROAD B27.

0644 PM     HAIL             TUCUMCARI               35.17N 103.73W
09/01/2005  0.75 INCH        QUAY               NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

0715 PM     FLASH FLOOD      TUCUMCARI               35.17N 103.73W
09/01/2005                   QUAY               NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STREET FLOODING - UP TO 2 FEET IN SPOTS. SPOTTER RECORDED
            2.75 INCHES OF RAIN.

0723 PM     FLASH FLOOD      TUCUMCARI               35.17N 103.73W
09/01/2005                   QUAY               NM   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            EIGHT INCHES OF WATER ACROSS OLD ROUTE 66 AND TUCUMCARI
            BLVD. SOME HOMES ARE FLOODED IN TOWN.

&&
SUMMARY OF REPORTS FROM THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 1 2005.

KJ