Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST WED AUG 18 2004

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR TYPICAL AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE BIGGEST STORMS IN NORTHERN GRAHAM/GREENLEE COUNTY AND SOUTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS NORTHEAST OF SAFFORD. WITH
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
IN GILA COUNTY...BELIEVE THAT GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES WILL BE
UNDER THE GUN AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH WIND/HAIL AND FLASH FLOODING THE
MAIN THREATS. THE STORM THAT WENT THROUGH CLIFTON BETWEEN 130 PM AND
2 PM PRODUCED PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN RATHER
QUICKLY WITH THE SETTING SUN.

THE DRYING TREND THAT STARTED TODAY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 10-20%
RANGE WITH STORMS MAINLY HUGGING THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS VALLEY
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S INSTEAD OF THE
AVERAGE LOW 60S FOR THIS TIME OF AUGUST. THE NON-MONSOON PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS...BUT NOT AS DEEP/AMPLIFIED AS EARLIER THOUGHT. NONE
THE LESS STILL UNFAVORABLE FOR MONSOON TYPE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS TROF
WILL LIKELY KICK UP THE WIND NEXT WEEK FOR SOME BREEZY AFTERNOONS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

GLUECK

JRG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1145 AM MST WED AUG 18 2004

AZZ019-029>035-190700-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-COCHISE COUNTY-
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-
1145 AM MST WED AUG 18 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SYNOPSIS...ACTIVITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY...AS DRIER
AIR IS MOVING INTO POSITION OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...SO A SLIGHT RISK REMAINS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...THOUGH DRIER AIR IS ENTERING THE AREA...THE MORNING
SOUNDING CAME IN MORE UNSTABLE THAN IT DID 24 HOURS PREVIOUS.  AND
THOUGH DEWPOITNS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LEVELLING
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING
MOISTURE TO FIRE UP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
PIMA COUNTY EASTWARD.  THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED...AND WHILE MOISTURE IS DECREASED...THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING STILL EXISTS IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. STORMS WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED AND
CONFINED NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY AS THIS FLOW DRIES OUT THE
AREA. A SOMEWHAT MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
215 PM MST WED AUG 18 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0142 PM     HAIL             CLIFTON                 33.02N 109.29W
08/18/2004  0.75 INCH        GREENLEE           AZ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

GLUECK