Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
929 PM MST MON JUL 26 2004

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS WEEK. A DRYING
TREND WILL RESULT WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONFINED MAINLY NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A RETURN TO A MORE SEASONAL
MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND AND DURING THE
FOLLOWING WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES NORTHWARD.
&&

.DISCUSSION...RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS EVENING. A FEW AREAS
RECEIVED SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS BUT NOT ENOUGH YET TO WARRANT
ANY WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES. THE VAMORI WASH NEAR KOM VO IN CENTRAL
PIMA COUNTY CRESTED BETWEEN 4 AND 5 PM MST AND WAS ON ITS WAY DOWN.
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE BORDER WAS MINIMAL THIS EVENING...SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANOTHER INCREASE IN THE VAMORI WASH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD OFF THE RIM COUNTRY INTO
THE CENTRAL DESERTS OF ARIZONA. THE STEERING FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST...SO COULD SEE A FEW STORMS CURRENTLY OVER
YAVAPAI COUNTY NORTH OF PHX REACH OUR CWA LATER TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...IT APPEARED THAT THE ACTIVITY WAS DIMINISHING. LATEST
MODELS WERE STILL SUGGESTING A DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS DRIER AIR TO OUR WEST SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST EVENTUALLY WEAKENS BY THE WEEKEND. GFS
MODEL DEEPENS A TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST BY
NEXT MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...SHOULD SEE AN UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT CAN BE
EXPECTED.
&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1215 PM MST MON JUL 26 2004

AZZ019-029>035-270700-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-COCHISE
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA
CRUZ COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-
1215 PM MST MON JUL 26 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SYNOPSIS...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS IS
NEAR NORMAL TODAY. DAYTIME HEATING IN COMBINATION WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE ALL OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

DISCUSSION...THE UPPER AIR SOUNDING AT TUCSON THIS MORNING DEPICTED
A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.36 INCHES AND THEREFORE WAS ABOUT
0.20 INCHES LOWER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. THE PROFILE WAS AGAIN
UNSTABLE WITH A MODIFIED LIFTED INDEX VALUE NEAR MINUS 3 AND THE
MODIFIED SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUE NEAR 800 J/KG. AREAS EAST OF
TUCSON HAD SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING...HENCE PROHIBITING
HEATING AT MANY LOCATIONS. EVEN WITH THIS CLOUD COVER AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY...WILL HELP TO PROMPT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM TUCSON EASTWARD...MAINLY NEAR
MOUNTAINS...HAS ALREADY BEGUN THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
THIS MORNING WITH A NORTHEAST MID LEVEL FLOW OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE MOGOLLON RIM WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS HOLD THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 55 MPH ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE WITH REGARD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN TODAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. THE BULK OF ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A FAIRLY LOW-GRADE MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN
BAJA BY WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO DECREASED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS WELL AS A DRYING TREND. AN UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
HIGH REBUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ELSLAGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1027 PM MST MON JUL 26 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SAN MANUEL              32.61N 110.64W
07/26/2004                   PINAL              AZ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            *** 1 INJ *** SIX TRAILER HOMES DAMAGED

&&

CWR