Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
245 PM MST SAT APR 10 2004

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. A RATHER VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT BRINGING THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER ON SUNDAY BRINGING THE
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO MOVE INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A LITTLE
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS AND STRONG STORMS OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ATTM. SPC ISSUED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH (NUMBER 62) FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THROUGH 6 PM MST. THE COMBINATION OF FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
LAPSE RATES...DAYTIME HEATING AND A STRONG VORT MAX CENTERED OVER
WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL LEAD TO THE CONTINUED THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE CONTINUED TO RISE ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE AND INCREASING DYNAMICS/SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A WEAKER IMPULSE WILL DIVE SOUTH ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER ON
SUNDAY...ROTATING EAST OF THE STATE SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...IN GREENLEE...COCHISE AND GRAHAM
COUNTIES. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND
TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK. A DEGREE OR
TWO OF COOLING IS EXPECTED MID WEEK AS A SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...FOR INCREASING CLOUDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH WILL BRING SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
ON SUNDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES. A RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN
STARTING MONDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AREAWIDE THROUGH FRIDAY. A
DIURNAL WIND REGIME WILL ALSO PREVAIL ALONG WITH GRADUALLY DECREASED
HUMIDITIES DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1235 PM MST SAT APR 10 2004

AZZ019-029>035-111400-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-
TOHONO OODHAM NATION-TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
1235 PM MST SAT APR 10 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA

.DAY ONE...TODAY

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MST...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 55 TO 60 MPH. STORM
MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. MOST OF THE STRONGER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
112 PM MST SAT APR 10 2004

AZZ019-029>030-033>035-110100-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-UPPER GILA RIVER
VALLEY-TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE
COUNTY-
112 PM MST SAT APR 10 2004

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 62 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA UNTIL 6 PM MST. HAIL TO
1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDES THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...COCHISE...GRAHAM...GREENLEE...SOUTHEAST
PINAL...SANTA CRUZ AND EASTERN PIMA. SOME CITIES INCLUDED IN THE
WATCH ARE...TUCSON...GREEN VALLEY...ELOY...ORACLE...NOGALES...
SAFFORD...CLIFTON...HANNAGAN MEADOW...WILLCOX...BENSON...SIERRA
VISTA...AND DOUGLAS.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.

ZELL