Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Tulsa, OK

MESOSCALE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
515 PM CDT TUE APR 20 2004

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED IN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG WIND SHIFT/COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NC OKLAHOMA.
STORMS OVER WESTERN OSAGE COUNTY...ONE IN THE VICINITY OF FORAKER
AND ANOTHER WEST OF FAIRFAX HAVE SHOWN SOME MID LEVEL ROTATION IN
LAST 10-15 MINUTES AS THEY PROGRESS EAST INTO SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. WILL INITIATE WARNINGS FOR THESE STORMS
MOMETARILY. OTHER STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY OVER
NORTHERN LINCOLN AND EASTERN LOGAN COUNTIES IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
WHICH CURRENT MOTION PLACES IN CREEK COUNTY BY ABOUT 600 PM.

FORECAST ID= 14

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT TUE APR 20 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 PM CDT TUE APR 20 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

...A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
   TONIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS AND CONTINUE DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA BY EARLY EVENING.  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE WHICH WILL SURGE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY
SUNSET.  THE HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN
ARKANSAS AS THE INITIAL DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS EVOLVE INTO A
SQUALL LINE AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN PROXIMITY TO THE
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND RESULTANT STRONGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR.  SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE INITIAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREATS.  THE EVOLUTION TOWARD A SQUALL LINE BY LATE EVENING WILL
FOCUS THE THREAT MORE TOWARD DAMAGING WINDS.

SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED OUTLOOK PERIOD.  CURRENTLY...THE BEST CHANCES OF
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR TO BE ON THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE CURRENT HAZARDS SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA.
GIVEN PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE
ISSUED AT YOUR LOCATION.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND
GRAPHICAL INFORMATION

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
214 PM CDT TUE APR 20 2004

ARZ001-010-OKZ054>070-210100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CHEROKEE OK-CRAIG OK-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-
MAYES OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-
OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-ROGERS OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-WASHINGTON OK-
WASHINGTON AR-
214 PM CDT TUE APR 20 2004

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 93 IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
402 PM CDT TUE APR 20 2004

OKZ054-202200-
OSAGE OK-
402 PM CDT TUE APR 20 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
    NORTHWESTERN OSAGE

AT 402 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13
MILES SOUTHWEST OF APPERSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SHIDLER...
APPERSON...WEBB CITY...FORAKER AND GRAINOLA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
458 PM CDT TUE APR 20 2004

OKZ054-202300-
OSAGE OK-
458 PM CDT TUE APR 20 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     OSAGE

AT 458 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTH OF FORAKER TO 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BURBANK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...SHIDLER...BURBANK...APPERSON...
WEBB CITY...PEARSONIA...FORAKER AND GRAINOLA.

A LARGE PORTION OF OSAGE COUNTY WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS
THROUGH 600 PM CDT.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
458 PM CDT TUE APR 20 2004

OKZ054-202300-
OSAGE OK-
458 PM CDT TUE APR 20 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     OSAGE

AT 458 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTH OF FORAKER TO 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BURBANK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...SHIDLER...BURBANK...APPERSON...
WEBB CITY...PEARSONIA...FORAKER AND GRAINOLA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.