Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
656 PM CST SAT MAR 20 2004

DISC...

LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER NOW CLEAR OF ALL TSA
CWA..WITH THE EXCEPTION CHOCTAW COUNTY. WILL
KEEP TSRA /SHRA IN CHOCTAW FOR ANOTHER HOUR.
PLENTY OF CLEAR SKY BEHIND SHOWER / THUNDER
SO LOWERED DROPPED CLOUD GRID VALUES.

WILL TWEAK TMIN TEMPS FOR 930-10 UPDATE.

PRELIM NUMBERS:

TUL    39   57   32   58 /   0    0    5   10
FSM    43   59   33   57 /   0    0    5   10
MLC    44   60   36   62 /   0    0    5   10
BVO    38   55   30   54 /   0    0    5   10
FYV    38   53   27   54 /   0    0    5   10
BYV    35   52   28   52 /   0    0    5   10
MKO    41   59   33   58 /   0    0    5   10
MIO    34   54   29   52 /   0    0    5   10
F10    42   58   33   59 /   0    0    5   10
HHW    49   61   39   63 /  30    0    5   10

FORECAST ID= 21

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CST SAT MAR 20 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211200-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE OUTLOOK AREA AND HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  THE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE HOWEVER THE CAP STRENGTH
HAS KEPT THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

THE CAP WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INITIATE BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHWARD.  MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THIS
LINE FAVORED FOR SEVERE WEATHER PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.  WEAK
WIND FIELDS ALOFT COUPLED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY FAVOR LARGE HAIL
AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD AND GRADUALLY PUSH THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT SOUTH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BY MID EVENING.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE CURRENT HAZARDS SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA.
GIVEN PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE
ISSUED AT YOUR LOCATION.

SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
431 PM CST SAT MAR 20 2004

OKZ073-202300-
PITTSBURG OK-
431 PM CST SAT MAR 20 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 500 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     PITTSBURG

AT 431 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ALDERSON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HARTSHORNE...
HAILEYVILLE...DOW...BACHE...ALDERSON AND KREBS.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.