Severe Thunderstorm Warning 377, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
1035 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

HAD DECIDED TO ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NE OK. UPPER LOW
SPINNING ITS WAY ACROSS NM THIS MORNING WILL OFFER A MIXED BAG OF
WEATHER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
ACROSS SE OK TO SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR NE OK. TEMPS DONT LOOK
INCREASE MUCH...THOUGH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RISING TEMPS WOULD
BE ACROSS FAR SE OK IF THE WARM FRONT MAKES IT THAT FAR NORTH. SNOW
CHANCE AMY ENTER THE PICTURE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS FAR NE OK...HOWEVER
THE EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR REQUIRED TO SUPPORT SNOW REMAINS IN
QUESTION. MORE ON THIS IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.

NO CHANGES BEYOND FIRST PERIOD.

UPDATED ZFP/PFM/AFM OUT BY 1540Z

FORECAST ID= 23

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1050 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1050 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT...

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
 	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
 	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

DENSE FOG/POOR VISIBILITY.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
	ONSET...ONGOING.

WINTER WEATHER.
	RISK...LIMITED.
        AREA...EXTREME NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
        ONSET...LATE TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS TODAY...THEN ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND
SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS HAS PROMPTED A DENSE FOR ADVISORY FOR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EFFECTIVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEE /OKCNPWTSA/
FOR DETAILS.

A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALREADY
ENTERED PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.  AS THE
SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS
...AND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS. AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.  PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT AS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WRAPS
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.  AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL BEHIND
THE FRONT...THE RAIN MAY TRANSITION TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDANT UPON IF LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST.  WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INHIBIT THE THREAT FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
LATER FORECASTS SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL FAR NE OK WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY...HARD FREEZE LIKELY NE OK/NW AR THURSDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS.  A HARD FREEZE WILL
OCCUR ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION