Severe Thunderstorm Warning 351, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
300 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004

COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
SLOWLY BUT SURELY WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA BY TOMORROW
MORNING.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME AND
HAVE A DECENT POP GRADIENT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING.  BOTH THE MET AND MAV HAVE PRECIP CHANCES BEHIND
THE FRONT TOMORROW AND BELIEVE THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF OVERRUNING
LIKE SHOWERS AS A WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER AFTER
TONIGHT SO THE PRECIP TYPE OF CHOICE FOR TOMORROW WILL BE SHOWERS.

CLOUD COVER TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS THE FRONT PASSES AND LOW LEVEL
RH PROGS FROM BOTH THE ETA AND GFS SUGGEST PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY MONDAY MORNING. NATURE OF THE CLOUDS
WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. IT SHOULD BE QUITE COOL
TOMORROW.  WENT WITH A MIX OF THE COOLER MET AND WARMER BUT STILL
COOL MAV SUNDAY. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPS REBOUND SOME MONDAY
BUT A MIXTURE OF THE MET AND MAV STILL GIVES US TEMPS ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

MONDAY MORNING AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MORNING HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BE QUITE COOL AND BELIEVE THE MAV HANDLES THIS WELL.

RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE ABOUT NIL AS STABLE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE.  PRECIP CHANCES WILL AGAIN
BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE LAST FEW RUNS OF
THE GFS INSISTS THERE WILL BE A WAVE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY.  DO
NOT QUITE BELIEVE THE BOMB THE 12Z GFS COOKS UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THOUGH BUT DO BELIEVE THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN.

NOT QUITE SURE HOW LONG PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AFTER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BUT THE MEX AND HPC HAVE HEALTHY POPS THURSDAY.  THIS SEEMS
O.K. GIVE HEALTHY PROGGED INSTABILITY.

PRELIM NUMBERS:

TUL    63   73   61   84 /  50   30   10   10
FSM    67   79   63   84 /  70   30   10   10
MLC    64   76   60   83 /  70   30   10   10
BVO    61   72   57   82 /  40   30   10   10
FYV    62   74   59   79 /  70   30   10   10
BYV    60   69   58   77 /  70   30   10   10
MKO    63   75   60   83 /  60   30   10   10
MIO    61   72   59   80 /  50   30   10   10
F10    63   73   61   82 /  60   30   10   10
HHW    72   81   66   85 /  70   30   10   10

FORECAST ID= 17

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ABBAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE A LITTLE SUNSHINE HAS RESULTED IN THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE
LIMITS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM OKEMAH TO FAYETTEVILLE.  COOLER AIR AND PREVIOUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE HELPED TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FURTHER TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THIS LINE.  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR NICKELS ALSO
POSSIBLE.  HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
OF LOW LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGHEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AT LEAST
INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING THE AREA WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN THE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TIME FRAME.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND
GRAPHICAL INFORMATION

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
313 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 ENE WISTER            34.97N 94.72W
07/24/2004  60 MPH           LE FLORE           OK   MESONET

            MEASURED BY MESONET

&&

HMN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
326 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             ALMA                    35.48N 94.22W
07/24/2004  0.88 INCH        CRAWFORD           AR   AMATEUR RADIO

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MILE PER HOUR WINDS.

&&

HMN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
327 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004

OKZ071-242130-
MCINTOSH OK-
327 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     MCINTOSH

AT 327 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES
EAST OF RENTIESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS
WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN MCINTOSH COUNTY AND THESE MAY ALSO
BECOME STRONG. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS
INCLUDE...CHECOTAH...ONAPA AND RENTIESVILLE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
331 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004

ARZ020-242130-
FRANKLIN AR-
331 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     FRANKLIN

AT 331 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES
EAST OF WATALULA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CASS...PARADISE...TAFT...
WATALULA...JETHRO...MOUNTAIN TOP...BARNES...TURNERS BEND...REDDING
AND WIEDERKEHR VILLAGE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
333 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004

OKZ068-242130-
CHEROKEE OK-
333 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     CHEROKEE

AT 333 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
EAST OF WOODALL...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...WOODALL AND COOKSON.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
348 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004

ARZ019-242145-
CRAWFORD AR-
348 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     CRAWFORD

AT 348 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTH OF UNIONTOWN TO 3 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF MULBERRY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...PLEASANT HILL...UNIONTOWN...
CONCORD...MULBERRY...MOUNTAINBURG...VAN BUREN...ALMA...CEDARVILLE...
KIBLER...SHIBLEY...FURRY...DYER...FIGURE FIVE AND RUDY.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.