Severe Thunderstorm Warning 345, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
315 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS ALREADY PRESENT AT LOW
LEVELS...EVIDENCED BY DEWPOINTS COMMONLY IN THE MID 70S THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
AREA. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE TROUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL.
ALTHOUGH UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A SURFACE
FRONT ALONG WITH LOW PRESSURE AT LOWER LEVELS WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY.

WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR...COUPLED WITH THE OCCURRENCE OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD BE
PRIMARILY A RAINFALL EVENT. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE STORM TOTALS OF 1.5
TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
IN SOME AREAS. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY HIGH...REFLECTING THE
RECENT SPATE OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER. THEREFORE AM NOT EXPECTING ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST. THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE THE RETURN OF
WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. GENERALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE
CONTINUED WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ABOUT MIDWEEK.

PRELIM NUMBERS:

TUL    68   77   62   78 /  70   80   40   20
FSM    72   86   65   78 /  50   70   60   40
MLC    72   85   65   78 /  40   60   30   30
BVO    66   73   61   79 /  80   80   40   20
FYV    67   77   62   77 /  60   80   70   40
BYV    66   75   61   75 /  70   80   70   40
MKO    70   81   64   78 /  60   70   50   30
MIO    66   73   60   79 /  70   90   70   20
F10    70   81   64   77 /  60   70   30   20
HHW    74   91   68   81 /  20   50   30   30

FORECAST ID= 06

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.  INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS THAT MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS
WITH 50 MPH WIND GUSTS...HOWEVER ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED DUE TO WEAK WIND FIELDS ALOFT OVER THE REGION.  AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT PROGRESSES TO THE SOUTH.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF THE FRONT GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER
STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS GIVEN THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT CLEARING THE ENTIRE
AREA UNTIL LATE SUNDAY. COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK IN BEHIND
THE FRONT AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AT LEAST INTO THE
MIDDLE PART OF WORK WEEK. A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN COUPLED WITH A
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND
GRAPHICAL INFORMATION

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
527 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004

OKZ055-232330-
WASHINGTON OK-
527 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WASHINGTON

AT 527 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES
EAST OF RAMONA...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...VERA AND RAMONA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
558 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004

OKZ064-240000-
CREEK OK-
558 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CREEK

AT 558 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MILFAY...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MILFAY...DEPEW...SHAMROCK
AND DRUMRIGHT.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
609 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004

OKZ060-240015-
TULSA OK-
609 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     TULSA

AT 609 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
TULSA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...TULSA...OWASSO AND COLLINSVILLE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
610 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004

OKZ061-240015-
ROGERS OK-
610 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     ROGERS

AT 610 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
NORTH OF CLAREMORE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CLAREMORE...FOYIL AND BUSHYHEAD.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
633 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004

OKZ074-240030-
HASKELL OK-
633 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     HASKELL

AT 633 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A NEARLY STATIONARY STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTH OF STIGLER. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM
INCLUDE...STIGLER...LEQUIRE...WHITEFIELD...KEOTA AND KANIMA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
639 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004

OKZ074-240045-
HASKELL OK-
639 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     HASKELL

AT 639 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF STIGLER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...STIGLER...LEQUIRE...
WHITEFIELD AND KANIMA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.