Severe Thunderstorm Warning 324, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
320 AM CDT TUE JUL 6 2004

LARGE MCS CURRENTLY HEADING OUR WAY WITH RADAR TRENDS/LIGHTNING DATA
SUPPORTING TWO PRIMARY SEGMENTS EVOLVING...ONE ACROSS NE KANSAS AND
THE OTHER INTO NORTH CENTRAL OK.  00Z MODEL PERFORMANCE WAS POOR IN
HANDLING THIS EVOLUTION AND IN DEPICTING LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTH OVER
THE IMMEDIATE AREA...HOWEVER RECENT PROFILER DATA ALONG WITH 06Z
DATA SUPPORT A CONTINUED SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING.  GIVEN HISTORY OF THE STORMS AND EXPECTED
INSTABILITY THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SEVERE WINDS...AND ALSO
RAINFALL RATES OVER 1 INCH/HOUR.  CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
HIGHLIGHTS AREAS WITH LOWER FLOOD GUIDANCE...AND WILL BE MAINTAINED
THROUGH NOON TODAY.  COMPLEX SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH MID
MORNING WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING ON THE EASTERN FLANK.  WHILE SYNOPTIC
FRONT MAKES SLOW PROGRESS SOUTHWARD...RESIDUAL OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY
SERVE AS THE EFFECTIVE FRONT WITH RE-DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON
WITH SOUTHERN LOCATIONS FAVORED FOR THIS ACTIVITY.  SEVERE/FLASH
FLOOD THREAT HARD TO PINPOINT GIVEN UNCERTAIN EVOLUTION...BUT WILL
BE MONITORED WITH LATER FORECASTS.  TEMPS TRICKY WITH RAIN COOLED
DOME AFFECTING TEMPS EARLY...WITH LATE DAY RALLY POSSIBLE ASSUMING
TRUE AIRMASS CHANGE REMAINS NORTH THROUGH THE DAY.  OVERNIGHT STORM
CHANCES AGAIN FAVOR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS AS STORMS DEVELOPING TO THE
WEST TRACK E-SE ALONG/NORTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  STAYED CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS.

EXPECT SURFACE HIGH TO PUSH LIMITED PRECIP CHANCES TO THE SOUTH
TOMORROW WITH RETURN FLOW AND ELEVATED STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  TOUGH TO PICK A FAVORED LOCATION SO WILL CARRY LOW POPS
AREAWIDE FOR NOW.  NO NEED TO STRAY FAR FROM CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL DATA HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING PRECIP CHANCES
WARRANTED THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE...SO
WILL CARRY LOW POPS FOR NOW.  FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWS
UPPER RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE WITH AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY
WEATHER.

PRELIM NUMBERS:

TUL    87   67   87   71 /  90   20   10   20
FSM    87   69   88   69 /  40   60   20   20
MLC    88   69   86   70 /  50   50   20   20
BVO    86   61   86   66 /  90   20   10   20
FYV    84   64   83   64 /  50   30   10   20
BYV    77   64   81   62 /  50   30   10   20
MKO    87   66   87   71 /  60   40   10   20
MIO    83   63   85   65 /  70   20   10   20
F10    87   68   86   70 /  70   50   20   20
HHW    92   72   87   70 /  40   60   20   20

FORECAST ID= 07

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TODAY FOR ZONES OKZ054>063.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1020 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-061000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1020 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT...

A LARGE COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OSAGE COUNTY BETWEEN 4 AND 5 AM...AND POSSIBLY REACH THE
TULSA METRO AREA BETWEEN 5 AND 6 AM.

FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT AND AMPLE INSTABILITY SUGGEST DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ACCOMPANY THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.  RECENT RAINS HAVE LEFT CONDITIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING.  ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR A LARGE PART OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH NOON TUESDAY.

SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING.
THIS COMPLEX WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT DECREASING. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES OVER THE AREA.  DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND
GRAPHICAL INFORMATION

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1000 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

OKZ054>064-067>069-060310-
ADAIR OK-CHEROKEE OK-CRAIG OK-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-MAYES OK-
NOWATA OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-ROGERS OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-
1000 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 567 HAS EXPIRED.