Severe Thunderstorm Warning 296, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
840 PM CDT THU JUL 1 2004

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE TEMPORARILY ENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BEING SEEN IN ALL BUT FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER WESTERN
KANSAS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ITS EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS INTO FAR NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL ORGANIZE INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WHICH WILL
TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME BACKBUILDING MAY OCCUR AS WELL SO WILL
LEAVE POPS IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BUT WILL KEEP THEM IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.

THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF TULSA
DURING THE NEXT 1-4 HOURS AS THIS IS WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY
EXISTS. STORMS MAY REMAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE THOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AS THEY CONTINUE TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST. ANY STORMS
BACKBUILDING INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MAY HAVE A SLIGHTLY GREATER
RISK OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER LATER TONIGHT GIVEN THE GREATER
INSTABILITY IN THAT AREA AS OPPOSED TO AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST.

MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE POP AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS HOWEVER.

UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

FORECAST ID= 05

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

PLATE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
845 PM CDT THU JUL 1 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-020900-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
845 PM CDT THU JUL 1 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
   TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND AFTER...

A SQUALL LINE WAS FORMING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS EVENING.  THIS SQUALL LINE MAY MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BRINGING THE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  THE SQUALL LINE MAY REACH OSAGE AND PAWNEE
COUNTIES BETWEEN 1030 PM AND MIDNIGHT AND SPREAD OVER THE REST OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TRACK INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...BUT THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE AS GREAT AS WAS THOUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE CURRENT HAZARDS SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA.
GIVEN PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE
ISSUED AT YOUR LOCATION.

SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER PARTS OF THE
REGION FRIDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS AND PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
EVENING. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK EASTWARD...WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY.  THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES RETURN
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRACK INTO THE
AREA.  TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK WARM AND DRY AT THIS TIME.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND
GRAPHICAL INFORMATION