Severe Thunderstorm Warning 292, NWS Tulsa, OK

AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
245 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

MCS CURRENTLY ENTERING NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH
EAST DURING THE MORNING AND SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY MID TO LATE
MORNING.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NE AND EXTENDING INTO NORTHWEST KS WILL
SAG INTO NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA BY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THIS COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THE ATMOSPHERE IS ABLE TO
RECOVER ENOUGH FROM THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING CONVECTION...SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH CAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 2000 J/KG EXPECTED. OF MORE CONCERN WILL BE THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA NEAR THE COLD FRONT WITH
THE AID OF A POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES.
THIS COMPLEX WILL BE FUELED BY A 45 KT LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT.
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH THE MODELS HINTING AT A 3 TO 5 INCH BULLSEYE ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SITUATION CLOSELY. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH WIND AND HAIL THE MAIN CONCERNS.
THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE FORECAST ARE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXIT THE AREA.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT TUESDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL OFF NICELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

WILL DROP ANY MENTION OF PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED. NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE AREA.

PRELIM NUMBERS:

TUL    84   65   79   62 /  60   90   50   10
FSM    88   69   79   61 /  40   80   60   20
MLC    89   67   78   61 /  30   80   40   10
BVO    85   64   80   55 /  70   80   40   10
FYV    80   63   74   53 /  60   90   60   20
BYV    80   63   72   57 /  70   80   70   20
MKO    85   65   77   59 /  50   90   60   10
MIO    81   62   76   57 /  70   70   40   10
F10    87   66   77   61 /  40   90   40   10
HHW    90   72   84   66 /  20   70   50   20

FORECAST ID= 10

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
135 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-210800-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
135 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...LATE TONIGHT

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.  THE STORMS ARE ELEVATED IN
NATURE...MEANING THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOT LIKELY TO REACH
GROUND LEVEL.  PEAK WINDS TO AROUND 45 MPH WILL OCCUR WITH THE
LINE.  THEREFORE NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...UNLESS THE LINE
UNEXPECTEDLY INTENSIFIES.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS WILL DETAIL THE
STORMS PROGRESS.

SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX
COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF STORM COMPLEXES WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS COMPLEX MAY TRACK A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND AFFECT MORE OF THE REGION WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINS...ALONG WITH WIND AND HAIL.

A GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND
GRAPHICAL INFORMATION

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
124 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

OKZ054-059-064-210730-
CREEK OK-OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-
124 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 230 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     OSAGE...PAWNEE AND CREEK

AT 124 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 23 MILES NORTHWEST OF APPERSON TO 18 MILES WEST
OF PAWNEE TO 49 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PAWNEE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
MANNFORD...PAWHUSKA...HOMINY...FAIRFAX...BURBANK
FORAKER...GRAINOLA...PAWNEE...DRUMRIGHT...OILTON AND SILVER CITY.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ALONG
WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN.

STAY TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
213 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

OKZ054>056-059>061-064-067-210815-
CREEK OK-NOWATA OK-OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-ROGERS OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER
OK-WASHINGTON OK-
213 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 315 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     OSAGE...WASHINGTON...NOWATA...ROGERS...PAWNEE...TULSA...CREEK
     AND WAGONER

AT 211 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 19 MILES NORTH OF PEARSONIA TO 3 MILES WEST OF
CLEVELAND TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DRUMRIGHT...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
MANNFORD...CLAREMORE...CATOOSA...PAWHUSKA...HOMINY...BARNSDALL...
TULSA...SAND SPRINGS... BIXBY...JENKS...OWASSO...GLENPOOL...
SPERRY...SKIATOOK...COLLINSVILLE...BROKEN ARROW...
BARTLESVILLE...COWETA...KIEFER ...DRUMRIGHT...OILTON...KELLYVILLE
AND SAPULPA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN.  THESE WIND GUSTS COULD BREAK A FEW SMALL
BRANCHES OR BLOW LIGHT WEIGHT OBJECTS SUCH AS LAWN FURNITURE.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.