Severe Thunderstorm Warning 289, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
300 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

MCS ROLLING ACROSS KANSAS AND CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING.
THIS MCS WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS A MODEST 30KT LOW LEVEL JET
FEEDS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE MCS HAS BEEN
DECAYING OVER THE LAST HOUR AS THE NORTHERN PORTION BECOME MORE
DOMINANT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH MCS IS
EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA MID TO LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF ANY OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER. THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PROPAGATE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERNS.

COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS MORNING  WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK TO THE NORTH.

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

PRELIM NUMBERS:

TUL    88   67   78   68 /  60   40   50   20
FSM    92   72   84   66 /  40   40   40   20
MLC    92   69   82   67 /  30   40   50   20
BVO    85   65   78   62 /  70   40   40   20
FYV    86   65   77   62 /  50   40   40   20
BYV    85   63   75   61 /  50   50   30   20
MKO    90   68   79   66 /  50   40   50   20
MIO    84   64   77   62 /  70   40   30   20
F10    90   69   81   68 /  40   30   40   20
HHW    92   73   87   71 /  30   40   40   20

FORECAST ID= 10

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...RETRANSMIT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
730 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
340 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THESE
STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. BRIEF
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THESE
LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS.

ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND
WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT. AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST...IT MAY AFFECT LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT...GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.  THE COMPLEX SHOULD
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT ARRIVES IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LIMITING SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE CURRENT HAZARDS SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA.
GIVEN PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE
ISSUED AT YOUR LOCATION.

SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE AS THEY MOVE
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH HIGH WIND AND
HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. A BREAK FROM THE RAIN WILL OCCUR SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND
GRAPHICAL INFORMATION

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
157 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

OKZ054-180800-
OSAGE OK-
157 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 300 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     OSAGE

AT 157 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF GRAINOLA TO 16 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF APPERSON...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...PAWHUSKA...SHIDLER...
HOMINY...AVANT...WYNONA...WOLCO...FAIRFAX...BARNSDALL...PERSHING...
TALLANT...NELAGONEY...BURBANK...OKESA...APPERSON...WEBB CITY...
PEARSONIA...BIGHEART...FORAKER...HULAH AND GRAINOLA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.