Severe Thunderstorm Warning 225, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
300 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004

IN THE SHORT TERM...LOW LEVEL JET MAKING ITS PRESENCE FELT AT
SURFACE IN THE FORM OF VERY STRONG WINDS IN THE WAKE OF DISSIPATING
CONVECTION OVER NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. VERY STRONG CONVECTION KEEPS
FIRING ALONG BOUNDARIES JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AND LIKELY WILL
KEEP FIRING FROM INTERACTION OF BOUNDARIES AND LOW LEVEL JET. THERE
MAY BE A PAUSE LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT
CONVECTION TO RE-FIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. COULD
BE SOME TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS AS BOUNDARIES BECOME MORE
STATIONARY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY RAIN
EVENT OVER NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES TONIGHT. HAVE UPPED POPS
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS AND LOWERED TEMPS SOME.

IN THE LONGER TERM....THE SAGGING COLD FRONT COULD BE WITH US FOR A
FEW DAYS UNTIL SOME RIDGING TAKES PLACE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE KEPT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A NORTH TO SOUTH
GRADIENT.

PRELIM NUMBERS:

TUL    82   63   83   65 /  50   50   50   30
FSM    81   69   85   65 /  40   40   40   20
MLC    82   69   86   67 /  20   40   30   20
BVO    79   62   81   63 /  50   60   60   30
FYV    79   62   80   62 /  50   50   40   40
BYV    78   62   80   63 /  50   60   50   50
MKO    82   67   86   65 /  40   40   40   20
MIO    80   63   81   63 /  50   60   60   50
F10    81   68   86   66 /  30   40   40   20
HHW    86   70   86   65 /  20   30   30   20

FORECAST ID= 15

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
625 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
625 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

THUNDERSTORMS FIRED ALONG THE DRYLINE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. A STRONG CAP REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH
THE CAP IS WEAKEST TO THE NORTHWEST OF TULSA. A FEW OF THE CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE INTO THESE AREAS BY EARLY TO MID
EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONT ACROSS KANSAS AND MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
COULD BUILD INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
LATER TONIGHT AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. SUFFICIENT
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS. SLOW
MOVEMENT COULD MEAN VERY HEAVY RAIN FOR A FEW AREAS.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE CURRENT HAZARDS SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA.
GIVEN PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE
ISSUED AT YOUR LOCATION.

SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND
GRAPHICAL INFORMATION

OKZ064-250545-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1151 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

OKZ064-250545-
CREEK OK-
1151 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1245 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CREEK

AT 1151 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERPARTS
OF SOUTHERN CREEK COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. WHILE THUNDER IS
NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF CREEK COUNTY THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
307 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004

OKZ054-250900-
OSAGE OK-
307 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 400 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     OSAGE

AT 307 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTH OF GRAINOLA TO 15 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF APPERSON...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...PAWHUSKA...SHIDLER...AVANT...
WYNONA...WOLCO...BARNSDALL...PERSHING...TALLANT...NELAGONEY...
BURBANK...OKESA...APPERSON...WEBB CITY...PEARSONIA...BIGHEART...
FORAKER...HULAH AND GRAINOLA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.